Hope for the best, prepare for the usual.
The best for Hawaii, ranked No. 8 in the AVCA Coaches Top 25, would be staying home this week and hosting the first and second rounds of the NCAA volleyball tournament at the Stan Sheriff Center.
The usual would be for the selection committee to adhere strictly to the computer-generated Ratings Percentage Index and send the Rainbow Wahine and their current 26 RPI on the road for the second straight season, ninth time in 12 years. Although Hawaii (26-1, 16-0 Big West) is expected to move up in today’s RPI— which rates a team’s strength, its opponents’ strength of schedules and its opponents’ opponents’ strength of schedules — it may not be high enough to be awarded a top-16 seed.
“We’ve done all we can do,” Rainbow Wahine coach Dave Shoji told his team after Saturday morning’s practice. “It’s up to the committee. We could be home. We could be leaving as soon as Monday night.
“We need to be ready for whatever happens.”
Hawaii has done all it could do with the exception of one loss, that to No. 13 UCLA 22 matches ago in four sets. Since Sept. 6, the Wahine have won 21 straight, including its last six matches on the road, a skein that had them playing four in seven days and dropping just one set.
Helping the Wahine’s cause is how they finished in their last 10 matches: 10-0, 6-0 on the road. While Hawaii had a bye this past week, its RPI is expected to get a boost from UCLA (RPI 13), which defeated top-ranked USC (RPI 2) on Wednesday; and unranked Oregon State’s surprise victory over No. 23 Arizona. Big West runner-up Long Beach State (RPI 63) swept Pacific and Denver the past two days.
What would have really helped would have been if UCLA had held on Friday against No. 6 Stanford. The Bruins were up 2-1 only to have the Cardinal rally in five.
The good news is Hawaii knows it will be watching Sunday’s selection show as a conference champion with an automatic bid, the first time since 2012 when it also entered the postseason as the unbeaten Big West champ. The past two years, the Wahine have gotten in as an at-large selection.
Hawaii may be the only conference representative or Long Beach State (25-6, 13-3 Big West) could join the Wahine as an at-large choice. The 49ers have been in and out of the Top 25 all season, with their only losses in the past 12 matches to Hawaii twice.
The Hawaii players are trying not to play the who-where-when guessing game. Not knowing “is good and bad,” Wahine junior setter Tayler Higgins said. “It’s good because we only have the choice of focusing on us right now. The past couple of practices we don’t have anyone to prepare for, so the focus is on us and that’s a good thing.
“Hopefully we get what we deserve in terms of how well our season has gone. If that’s going away, then it’s going away. If it’s staying, then we’ll see how it goes.”
Shoji has looked at the potential away sites that, if the committee stays regionally, would be at the top four Pac-12 schools: co-champions USC (30-2) and Washington (28-2), Stanford (22-6) or UCLA (23-7). The other western school could be Brigham Young, where no one wants to go. Not only has the Cougar volleyball team not lost at home this season (12-), neither have football (6-0), men’s basketball (3-0), women’s basketball (2-0) or women’s soccer (11-0).
“We don’t want BYU with the altitude,” Shoji said of Provo, Utah. “And you don’t want to be playing UW at UW (which would be the fourth time in six years for Hawaii).
“I think we deserve to be seeded, I think we deserve to be home. But you just never know.”
The Wahine have seen that in the past 10 years when being sent to Colorado State (2011), Louisville (2007) and Texas (2005). Hawaii (26-1) and Arkansas State (28-1) are the only one-loss teams left in the NCAA; the Red Wolves (RPI 18) won the Sun Belt Conference tournament with a 3-2 victory over Appalachian State on Saturday.
One thing that is certain is Hawaii goes into the NCAA tournament without junior middle Annie Mitchem. The two-time two-year college player of the year has been out since fracturing the little finger on her right hitting hand against UC Irvine on Oct. 17. She is scheduled to see the doctor on Monday, but it is highly unlikely she’ll be cleared to play.
Shoji said he hoped to have her back the following week in time for regional play, the sites being San Diego; Austin, Texas; Lexington, Ky.; and Des Moines, Iowa. That would mean the Wahine would have gotten past the second round for the first time since 2011, when Hawaii lost a marathon five-set battle to USC in a Sweet 16 match at the Stan Sheriff Center, also the last time UH hosted a regional.
