Redirecting rail route probably even more trouble

The Honolulu elevated rail project, easily the largest and most controversial the city has undertaken, has gone through various upheavals over the years, including lawsuits, consternation over skyrocketing costs and the wavering public support that such problems have caused.

Now more than ever, a steady hand is needed to keep the project from veering off in directions that could diminish its value in the final analysis.

Projections by the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation put the bottom line at $6.9 billion; federal counterparts say it will be more like $8.1 billion, when all is said and done. Those are undeniably scary figures.

The bulk of the recent increases are linked to concerns that bringing the rail through Dillingham Boulevard in particular could be much more expensive than originally thought.

HART’s plan for providing safety clearance from overhead power lines along the route conflict with the more costly arrangement preferred by Hawaiian Electric Co.

So now there’s a new round of debate among those who hope that shifting part of the route to Nimitz Highway on the eastern half of the alignment could ease the cost burden somewhat.

The Federal Transit Administration, overseer of the project and the $1.53 billion Uncle Sam has kicked in for the project, is said to be encouraging out-of-the-box thinking that saves costs, so it’s good to see some energy expended in that direction.

Admittedly, it’s tempting to contemplate options such as shifting to a surface-level segment to avoid the whole utility clearance issue. That would defuse some of the fiercest criticism about aesthetic considerations as the project moves through Downtown.

This discussion, however, needs to look at everything that would be sacrificed in a major change.

Principally, at issue is whether the rail alignment would satisfy the public transit need if it ventures too far from the communities where the most people live and work.

And even if one considers only the expenditures themselves, alternatives at this stage of the process may not ultimately save that much money, due to all the costs of switching gears.

New studies — including a possible supplemental environmental impact statement — new permitting approvals and the loss of planning work done to date all could add up. Those costs could rival or exceed the savings from avoiding elevated utility-clearance costs.

HART board Chairwoman Colleen Hanabusa presided over the special public meeting on Tuesday the agency convened to discuss the costly overhead utility line clearance problems.

Cost-cutting has become the overarching concern, and for good reason. Federal authorities say there’s a fair chance the budget will bust through even the $8.1 billion ceiling.

But HART and the public it serves must not lose sight of the shortcomings of Nimitz as a route in the first place.

The Nimitz Flyover Project, a two-lane reversible viaduct from Keehi interchange to Iwilei, was under study in an EIS at the time the rail EIS also was being prepared. The concurrence of the two projects made that route untenable.

Furthermore, the rail would miss Honolulu Community College and the housing developments in Kalihi, where residents surely could use the support of convenient rapid transit.

Additionally, there were millions spent in advance on preliminary design work along the alignment that runs through Dillingham, all of which would be wasted if that plan is up-ended.

There is a bit of hopeful news. HART has reached an agreement with HECO allowing rail work to overlap by a year with the effort to route the utility company’s overhead lines underground, said Brennon Morioka, HART deputy executive director. That should contain some of the cost increases and potential delays.

Even so, construction is certain to fall even further behind schedule in part due to the deeper shafts that must be drilled heading into town, Morioka said. The FTA has estimated that rail won’t be completed until 2024, five years after the completion target eyed only a few years ago.

The project is at a perilous juncture. Hanabusa, who arrived to her post only a short time ago, is likely to leave to seek election to Congress. With that kind of turnover, what the project needs is stability, expertise and professionalism driving key decisions.

Yes, Dillingham businesses now out of the construction zone would enjoy relief from disruption while the project is underway. But long-term benefits would be lost. There’d be little redevelopment that the district sorely needs.

And those commuters, as well as the rest of HART’s future riders, would end up spending a lot of money for a rail system that neither lies within easy reach, nor touches the places they want to go.