The state’s top economists are a little less bullish on Hawaii’s economy.
The Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism cut its growth forecast for Hawaii this year by a half-percentage point and projected the economy will continue to grow at a slower pace for the rest of 2017 and the three subsequent years.
While the overall economy is growing a bit slower than expected, projections for visitor arrivals and spending were revised upward, according to the third-quarter economic forecast released Friday by DBEDT.
The agency said it anticipates Hawaii’s inflation-adjusted gross domestic product this year to rise 1.4 percent, down from 1.9 percent in its previous forecast in May.
SLOW GROWTH AHEADThe state’s forecast for year-over-year growth percentages through 2020:
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020
Visitor arrivals | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4
Visitor spending | 6.5 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.6
Payroll jobs | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8
Unemployment rate* | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.4
Inflation rate | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3
Personal income * | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4
GDP** | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3
* Percentage of workforce
** Adjusted for inflation figures
Source: State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism
The state agency lowered its forecast after Hawaii’s GDP rose at an annualized rate of just 0.9 percent during the first quarter of this year, according to data released last week by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was the lowest quarterly growth rate since the first quarter of 2015. The state’s GDP grew above 2 percent for the full year in both 2015 and 2016.
“Hawaii’s economic fundamentals are still positive, although growth has slowed down,” DBEDT Director Luis Salaveria said in a statement. “We have the second- lowest unemployment rate in the nation during the first half of 2017, and our visitor industry is performing well, with 4.6 million visitor arrivals during the first half of the year.”
DBEDT also lowered its growth forecasts for future years — to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent in 2018, to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent in 2019 and to 1.3 percent from 1.6 percent in 2020.
Eugene Tian, chief economist for DBEDT, said he was surprised by the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ GDP number for Hawaii that spurred the state’s lower growth forecast.
“It was a surprise to me that it was less than 1 percent in the first quarter,” Tian said in a phone interview. “There are several industries not performing well and actually declining. They include health care services, construction, wholesale trade and manufacturing.”
Despite the lower growth projection, DBEDT expects the tourism industry to continue on its record pace. The state expects visitor arrivals to rise 3.2 percent this year and top 9.2 million. The increase is up from the 2 percent rise and 9.1 million visitors projected in its previous forecast.
In addition, DBEDT boosted its visitor spending forecast for this year to $16.78 billion, up 6.5 percent. Its previous forecast pegged visitor spending at $16.55 billion, up 5.1 percent.
“The increase in visitor spending is mainly due to the price increase,” Tian said in a statement. “For example, during the first half of 2017, hotel room rates increased 6.0 percent. Apparel prices increased 5.8 percent, and gasoline prices increased 20.4 percent. Visitors spent much of their money on these items. The real growth in the tourism industry is not large enough to offset the downturn of the few industries.”
DBEDT noted the construction sector lost 500 jobs during the first six months.
“The good news in the construction industry is that the value of private building permits increased 15.6 percent during the first half of 2017,” DBEDT said. “The increase in building permit value will be reflected in construction activities next year.”