Ige plans to fill war chest, ‘tell our story’ for re-election

Gov. David Ige plans to ramp up his political fundraising efforts to raise $1 million before the end of the year to prepare for what could be a bruising Democratic primary next year.

In a wide-ranging interview last week, Ige said his critical task in the year leading up to the Aug. 11 primary election will be to remind voters of what he has accomplished, including his efforts to cope with homelessness, promote renewable energy, grow the tourism industry and expand the information economy in Hawaii.

With seasoned Democrats such as U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa and Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho considering running for governor, Ige said he plans to raise $2.5 million to $3 million to secure another four-year term. State Rep. Bob McDermott is also running for governor, as a Republican.

“I guess I’ve been unusual in the sense that I have not been an aggressive fundraiser, but I do know that we are going to raise the funds that we need to tell our story, and we will begin to get a lot more aggressive with it in the next month or so,” Ige said. “We’ve made a bunch of commitments. We’ve been focused on making things happen in state government, and I believe we’ve been successful, so I’m looking forward to being able to tell our story.”

Ige ticked off a list of what he called “pretty impressive” accomplishments for his administration, including completion of more than 1,600 new affordable rentals. He also noted Hawaii is the first state to commit to 100 percent renewable energy, the first state to commit to the goals and limits of the Paris climate agreement and the first state to raise the smoking age to 21.

When asked whether voters know about those achievements, Ige replied, “Nope, and definitely, that’s the challenge. We definitely need to get out and let people know about the work that we’ve done.”

Colin Moore, director of the Public Policy Center at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, said Ige is “very vulnerable” politically because of his surprisingly low public approval rating, and because Ige had less than $250,000 on hand June 30 to fund his re-election effort.

Ige should also be concerned that at least two potentially strong candidates are considering challenging him, Moore said.

“What are the three biggest potential problems an incumbent governor could have?” Moore asked. “He has all three: not a lot of campaign cash, low approval rating and strong potential challengers.”

A poll by Morning Consult last month suggested Ige ranked near the bottom third nationally in popularity among U.S. governors, with an approval rating of only 48 percent. Another 42 percent said they disapprove of the job Ige is doing, and 9 percent didn’t know or had no opinion.

Moore said Ige’s low approval rating is puzzling because unemployment is low and the economy has been strong during his first term, which would usually benefit the state’s chief executive.

Ige is often criticized by political insiders for showing a lack of “leadership,” but he has not made any famous or disastrous mistakes that would cause the voters to suddenly turn on him, Moore said.

Some observers doubt the Morning Consult data because the poll queried registered voters instead of Democrats or likely primary voters.

That is important because the primary election often decides the outcome of gubernatorial contests in heavily Democratic Hawaii, and primaries tend to be dominated by specific groups such as union members and Americans of Japanese ancestry.

Ige may be more popular with those groups than he is with the general population. He received strong support from Okinawans in particular and the AJA community in general in the 2014 primary, when he ousted former Gov. Neil Abercrombie.

Ige also recently approved what some regard as generous contract settlements with all of the public worker unions, which might help solidify his support among tens of thousands of teachers and other unionized state, city and county employees.

However, Moore pointed out that Hanabusa has also enjoyed strong union support, and he speculated that Ige’s fundraising may have been weak so far because labor and other organizations are waiting “to see if they may have a better option.”

The AJA vote

Both Hanabusa and Ige are AJAs, which suggests that particular ethnic vote pool may be divided if Hanabusa runs.

“In terms of committed Democrats, they would have a very difficult decision to make. Do they support the incumbent governor, or do they support one of the stalwarts of the Democratic Party?” Moore said. “At the end of the day, everyone wants to back a winner, and I think they’re waiting, and if someone like Hanabusa jumps in, I think you’ll see a lot of people quickly move to her camp because the sense is that she can win.”

Bart Dame, a longtime Democratic Party activist, said Ige thus far has failed to capitalize on the considerable power of incumbency. Governors running for re-election usually have a significant advantage over their challengers, and Abercrombie was the only sitting state of Hawaii governor to be voted out of office in a primary.

Incumbents can readily raise money, can use patronage appointments to help consolidate their support, and can use the media attention focused on them to remind people of their accomplishments. Ige hasn’t really done any of that, Dame said.

“One of the things I like about David Ige is he doesn’t use the traditional powers of incumbency the way that others have,” Dame said. “I’m not saying he’s totally pure in that regard, but he seems to be driven by this sort of odd engineering sense of wanting to do the right thing in policy, do the correct thing and not do things for political consideration.”

Hanabusa was unavailable for an interview, but Moore said she faces a tough decision in the weeks ahead.

If she resigns from Congress to run for governor, she faces a tough campaign, and whatever the outcome, she likely will not be able to return to Washington, D.C., anytime soon. On the other hand, being a Democrat in the Republican-run U.S. House “is not a particularly great job,” Moore said.

Another important consideration may be the health of U.S. Sen. Mazie Hirono, who announced earlier this year she was undergoing treatment for stage 4 kidney cancer.

Hirono announced she will run for re-election in 2018, and Hanabusa endorsed Hirono in June. However, if Hirono’s illness causes her to change her plans, Hanabusa would be well positioned to make a bid for the Senate. Hanabusa campaigned for the U.S. Senate in 2014 but lost to Brian Schatz.

Ige would not speculate about a challenge from Hanabusa, but said, “We’re getting ready, assuming that there’s going to be someone running against me, whoever that is.”

The Trump card

Moore said Ige might have an opportunity to appeal to more Hawaii voters by clearly communicating the steps his administration has taken to counter actions by President Donald Trump’s administration. One example is the litigation pursued by state Attorney General Douglas Chin to challenge Trump’s immigration policies.

“One of the biggest and most popular things … is the fact that the Ige administration has stood up to President Trump in a way that few other Democratic states have,” Moore said. “That’s popular. Donald Trump is deeply unpopular in this state.”

However, most voters aren’t sure what Ige has done for them, and “I think that’s a communication problem more than anything,” Moore said. “I think in this day and age, it’s sort of hard to lead in this quiet fashion, and my guess is that whether it’s fair or not, a lot of voters would say, ‘I’m not even really sure what this guy is about.’”

“I don’t think his support is all that deep, and so it will be pretty easy for voters, given a choice and given the fact that they don’t seem particularly pleased with his performance, to pick another candidate,” Moore said.

Carvalho did not respond to a request for an interview last week. Hawaii News Now General Manager Rick Blangiardi, who was also considered a potential candidate, said last week he will not enter the governor’s race.