Buying real estate at the height of the market isn’t an attractive prospect, which is part of why investors bought less commercial property in Hawaii last year, according to a report released for publication today.
The dollar volume of commercial real estate sales statewide in 2017 fell for a third straight year, the report by Colliers International said.
Sales of properties including hotels, shopping centers, apartment complexes and office buildings totaled $3.1 billion last year. That was down from $4.1 billion in 2016 and $4.5 billion in 2015. The peak was $4.6 billion in 2014.
The Hawaii office of Colliers, a commercial real
estate brokerage firm that counts all sales over $1 million in its report, said the slowdown mirrors a national trend driven in part by price levels and concerns that a market downturn may be near after nine years of ascent.
“Buyers are hesitant about making acquisitions because upcycles are typically five years, far shorter than we are now experiencing,” Colliers said in the report. “Investors are concerned about current pricing levels and potentially buying at the market peak.”
Colliers also said that uncertainty last year over how President Donald Trump’s federal tax policy overhaul might turn out likely had a negative impact on commercial property purchases.
Now that this policy change is enacted, benefits in the new tax rules for real estate investing along with recent stock market volatility should encourage more commercial property purchases, the report said.
Still, Colliers expects that perceptions of market cycle timing will contribute to the value of Hawaii commercial property purchases falling $500 million this year to around $2.6 billion.
The company said in its report that it expects fewer “mega deals” but more acquisitions of smaller properties this year that result in a higher number of transactions and lower total dollar value.
Last year, the largest sale was $515 million for the former Pacific Beach Hotel in Waikiki (re-branded as ‘Alohilani Resort) by Germany-based investment firm Commerz Real AG. Next biggest was the $330 million sale of Turtle Bay Resort to New York-based investment firm Blackstone Group.
Resort properties overall accounted for a little over half of all transaction dollar volume, or $1.6 billion. There were just 12 such transactions, which also included the Westin Maui hotel for $317 million and Mauna Lani Bay Hotel &Bungalows property with a golf course for $196 million.
Retail was the next biggest category at $487 million represented by 60 sales. Retail transactions included part of Pearlridge Center for $70 million and Kauai Village Shopping Center for $44 million.
There were also 58 industrial property sales for
$298 million, 61 land sales for $288 million, 68 apartment building sales for $217 million and 25 office property sales for $163 million.
Colliers said mainland investors spent the most, about $1.5 billion, followed by local investors at close to $1 billion and then foreign investors at about $700 million.