Hurricane Lane expected to take northwest turn; forecasters warn of heavy rain, flooding

UPDATE: 11 p.m.

Hurricane Lane remained a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph late Sunday and its updated forecast includes a northwest turn that would bring it closer to the western Hawaiian islands later this week.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Oahu said Lane was 675 miles southeast of Hilo and 885 southeast of Honolulu, moving west at 14 mph, just before 11 p.m. Hurricane-force winds of 75 mph or more extend up to 30 miles from the storm’s center while tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more extend 110 miles, forecasters said.

The latest 5-day forecast map for Lane shows the storm weakening but moving northwest by midweek, placing Oahu and Kauai in the track’s so-called “cone of uncertainty.”

The National Weather Service on Oahu issued a “hydrologic outlook” for Hawaii, saying that Lane could bring heavy rain and floods to the islands,

“Latest forecast models indicate that, regardless of the eventual track and intensity of Lane, an extremely moist air mass will move over the islands beginning around Wednesday, and then persist through the end of the week,” forecasters said. “This is expected to result in very heavy rainfall, potentially leading to flash flooding.”

The timing and location of the heavy rain remain uncertain, depending on Lane’s eventual track, but forecasters advise the public to stay informed and to be prepared.

“Due to the large uncertainty in the future track and intensity of Lane, all interests in the Hawaiian islands should continue tomonitor the future progress of this system,” the 11 p.m. forecast said. “Based on the latest trends in the forecast, direct impacts on the islands can not be ruled out. The latest trends in tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities also suggest that a Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for some parts of the island chain early this week.”

In the meantime, Lane is expected to being high surf to the islands.

Eastern shores of the Big Island and Maui will be under a high surf advisory from 6 a.m. Monday to 6 p.m. Tuesday, the National Weather Center said. Waves up to 8-feet are expected.

“Surf may increase to warning levels for east- and/or south-facing shores later Tuesday or Wednesday as Lane progresses westward south of the state,” they said.

Forecasters warn of strong breaking waves, shore break, and strong longshore and rip currents making.

In addition, Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles, including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals, are under a hurricane watch.

6:30 p.m.

The National Weather Service issued a hurricane warning this evening for Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles.

NWS said there will be significant wave heights and possibility of thunderstorms at sea starting tonight and continuing through the week.

5 p.m.

Hurricane Lane is moving west in the Central Pacific and on a path that will take the category 3 hurricane east-southeast of Hawaii.

Hurricane Lane, with winds at 120 mph, is located 735 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 950 miles east-southeast of Honolulu. Some weakening and a gradual slowing in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center said a large swell generated by Lane is expected to reach the southeast- and east-facing shores of the Big Island and east-facing shores of Maui overnight. The swell may produce large and dangerous surf along these shorelines starting Monday.

A high surf advisory is in effect for east-facing shores of the Big Island and Maui.

11:30 a.m.

As of 11 a.m. today, Hurricane Lane is located approximately 817 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,028 miles east-southeast of Honolulu. The storm continues to head west at about 14 mph, with sustained winds near 125 mph and higher gusts.

Lane continues to make its approach toward Hawaii as a Category 3 storm, although some weakening is forecast through Monday night. High surf is expected along southeast- and east-facing shores of Hawaii island, and possibly Maui, by tonight.

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Hurricane Lane maintained its Category 3 intensity overnight, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and is still expected to pass south of the islands this week.

At 5 a.m. today, Lane was about 890 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,100 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, traveling west at 15 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Hawaii.

Forecasters said that a “large swell generated by Lane is expected to reach the southeast- and east-facing shores of the Big Island, and possibly east-facing shores of Maui, by this evening,” producing large and dangerous surf by tonight or early Monday.

Lane has intensified quickly since forming in the East Pacific last week. It entered the Central Pacific Saturday as a Category 4 hurricane but has since weakened slightly. That weakening is expected to continue over the next five days, forecaster said. However, Lane will likely remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles from Lane’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles, the hurricane center said early this morning.

“Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west-northwestward,” forecasters said. “Interests in those islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range forecast track and intensity errors can be large.”

The five-day forecast calls for the storm to be a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, by Friday when it is expected to be hundreds of miles southwest of Oahu, according to the hurricane center.