The growth of the state economy is slowing, prompting a panel of Hawaii experts Tuesday to lower its estimate for how much the state will collect in taxes this year by about $81 million.
That new projection by the state Council on Revenues reduces
the amount of money the state
will have to spend this year and during the next two years by a
total of about $250 million, but
the council still projects state tax collections will grow at a healthy clip each year.
Even after the latest adjustment by the council, the state general treasury is expected to collect more than $7 billion in taxes this year, more than $7.3 billion the
ollowing year and more than
$7.6 billion the year after.
House Finance Chairwoman
Sylvia Luke said the House draft
of the state budget for the next two years “is all in play, so there’s a lot of room for adjustment.” The new projections are a concern,
she said, but lawmakers will not need to impose major cuts.
“Because we still have a pretty good carryover balance (of money left over at the end of this year), we should be able to fill the gap,” she said.
The council previously had projected tax collections for the state would grow by 4.2 percent in the fiscal year that ends June 30 and by 4 percent in each of the following two years.
At its meeting Tuesday the council adjusted the projection
for this year down to 3 percent and left its projections for the
next two years untouched.
Gov. David Ige last year described state tax revenue as
“uncertain going forward,” and
developed his budget assuming the state would collect 3.5 percent more in taxes this year than last year. That means lawmakers should only need to make relatively modest adjustments in the state budget for the next two years if they stick to Ige’s plan.
However, lawmakers have pledged $60 million in grants and loans to help Hawaii island recover from last year’s lava flow and floods, and are considering other initiatives such as committing
$50 million to help finance the
redevelopment of Aloha Stadium.
All of the state’s public worker unions are also negotiating for raises in new contracts this year, and the lower tax collection
projections will make all of that more difficult for lawmakers
to fund.