Despite a series of headline-grabbing moves in recent weeks, Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard hasn’t gained much traction in her bid for the presidency, with her average polling numbers stuck at about 1%, making today’s debate performance all the more crucial if she’s going to qualify for the third round of Democratic primary debates in September, when the field of presidential candidates is expected to shrink significantly.
Gabbard will be among 10 candidates taking the stage in Detroit, along with political heavyweights former Vice President Joe Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris. The debate begins at 2 p.m. Hawaii time on CNN.
Political analysts say Gabbard will need to go after the front-runners and have a powerful message prepared that resonates with viewers.
“It’s a tall order. I don’t know if she can pull it off,” said Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College in California.
Michelson said Gabbard will need to seize a significant amount of speaking time, which can be tricky for a female candidate. Where men can come off as assertive when they interrupt, said Michelson, it can carry a negative connotation for women.
“She’s got to demand and take those minutes in a way that doesn’t give her this label of being too pushy or too rude,” said Michelson.
During the last debate, Gabbard was in the bottom third when it came to length of speaking time among her fellow contenders.
If Gabbard is able to deliver, being part of the second night of debates could prove an advantage.
“Being second means that you can have a lasting impression,” said Todd Belt, a professor and director of the Political Management Program at George Washington University. “So if she says something that is really going to strike a chord with Democratic voters and really separate herself out from the rest of the pack, then that could be helpful.”
Despite media attention, poll numbers remain low
In recent weeks, Gabbard’s campaign has attracted significant media attention, important for Gabbard, who is still struggling with name recognition.
She grabbed headlines when she joined thousands of protesters in Puerto Rico earlier this month in demanding Gov. Ricardo Rossello resign. She set off another round of news stories when she attacked Harris as being unqualified to serve as commander in chief. And on Thursday her campaign sued Google for $50 million, alleging that the tech giant intentionally suspended her Google advertising account for six hours in the wake of the first debate when she became one of the most searched candidates, creating more of a media stir.
But overall, the political maneuvers haven’t boosted her popularity in the polls. Throughout the week Democratic primary polls tracked by the website FiveThirty
Eight had her polling for the most part between zero and 1%.
Belt said Gabbard’s attacks on Harris and Google could be seen as poor sportsmanship — “particularly the Google thing,” he said. “If she starts bringing up the issue of Google and censorship, it is also going to open up the issue of the fact that there are a lot of people on the alt right who are supporting her and the 4chan segments of the Internet. Also the fact that some of her supporters on Twitter seem to be bots. They’re posting over 100 times a day.
“And so if she wants to start complaining about how she is being treated digitally, it’s going to open up a can of worms about exactly who her support is digitally and whether or not it is real.”
Colin Moore, director of the public policy center at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, said the Google lawsuit was in line with Gabbard’s quest to break up tech monopolies, which is a popular progressive talking point. But he said that claiming Google was purposefully denying her freedom of speech “is preposterous in some ways.”
“She tends to play pretty close to the conspiracy theory fringe,” said Moore. “And that Google lawsuit, I think, is something that … starts to sound more like a conspiracy theory, which is not so effective.”
Moore said he thought Gabbard’s trip to Puerto Rico may have been an attempt to connect with Latino voters, but that it was odd to be there instead of at home addressing the situation on Mauna Kea where hundreds of demonstrators have been blocking construction of the Thirty Meter Telescope.
“I find her decision not to go to Mauna Kea inexplicable, especially given how vocal she was about Standing Rock,” said Moore. “Maybe she decided that for her presidential campaign that was not an issue that would play well for her with voters nationally. But I do think it will hurt her when she runs for reelection, if she does.”
Moore said that it will likely feed the narrative in Hawaii that her presidential bid has distracted her from her responsibilities at home, something state Sen. Kai Kahele, who is running for her seat, will likely seize on.
“Just not being present, people will wonder, Why didn’t you even show up and talk to folks?” said Moore.
