New Cold War: China’s surge in Pacific Islands must be addressed by U.S., Hawaii

After decades of ambivalence, the United States is taking a keen interest in the Pacific Islands region.

In May President Donald Trump met with leaders of the Micronesian states tied to the U.S. through compacts of free association: the Marshall Islands, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). In another first, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with them again in early August in Pohnpei, FSM.

The U.S. is working with Australia to redevelop a naval base in Papua New Guinea, and fund a $1.6 billion rural electrification project there. Washington has sent high-level officials to other island countries, including Fiji, Vanuatu and Solomon Islands.

This new activity aims to counter China’s rise to regional prominence. China is now the region’s third-largest aid donor and second-largest trade partner. The eight island countries having diplomatic relations with China can access funding to upgrade ports, roads and other infrastructure through Beijing’s massive Belt and Road Initiative.

The six island states that recognize Taiwan are under pressure to switch to Beijing, which regards Taiwan as a renegade province to be reintegrated by force if necessary. U.S. support for Taiwan includes arms sales, and Western leaders urge Taiwan’s allies to stick with Taipei.

Western countries regard China’s increased profile as an intrusion into their sphere of influence, argue that Chinese loans increase vulnerability to political leverage, and are alarmed by Beijing’s reported interest in establishing a naval base in the region. Australia’s Step-Up initiative to strengthen Pacific ties includes a $1.4 billion infrastructure development fund. New Zealand’s Pacific Reset policy boosts people-to-people activities to encourage leaders to keep their distance from China.

These developments are replicated elsewhere in the world as the U.S. confronts China’s rise in what some call a new Cold War, equivalent in intensity to the competition with the Soviet Union that dominated global politics after World War II.

The success of these efforts is not assured. Despite disadvantages of small size and lack of resources, Pacific leaders are adept at pursuing their national interests in the face of great power competition. During the Cold War, Kiribati and Vanuatu defied Western pressure and signed fisheries agreements with the Soviet Union, and leaders negotiated a favorable tuna access treaty with the U.S. despite strong opposition from the U.S. fishing industry.

More recently, leaders have side-stepped regional partners Australia and New Zealand to work with other developing countries to influence major global initiatives, including the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.

Leaders welcome the economic opportunities China brings to the region, and do not take kindly to warnings from Western countries that themselves have extensive economic entanglements with this rising power.

Furthermore, island leaders regard climate change, not China, as the major challenge to regional security. The Trump administration has opted out of the Paris Agreement, and Australia continues to expand its coal industry, making it difficult to argue that they have the region’s best interests at heart.

Island leaders now refer to the region as “the Blue Pacific” to emphasize their autonomy and role as stewards of this vast ocean, and to counter formulations like “Indo-Pacific” that reflect external powers’ geostrategic concerns.

HAWAII IS deeply implicated in all of this, not only because it hosts the mighty U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, but through its enduring connections to the region. Kanaka maoli maintain ties to indigenous groups across the Blue Pacific, and Hawaii is home to migrant populations from the region. Next year, Hawaii will host the Festival of Pacific Arts and Culture, a major regional event with participants from more than 20 countries.

Many island leaders have attended the University of Hawaii, and UH is the leading institution for Pacific Islands Studies in the U.S. Numerous Hawaii-based programs conduct Pacific-related research, and the East-West Center’s Pacific Islands Development Program (PIDP) was founded in 1980 as a conduit for U.S. engagement in the region.

However, PIDP is less involved in regional affairs today than in the past, and the number of East-West Center degree scholarships awarded to Pacific Island applicants has dwindled to a handful. China now offers 1,400 scholarships for Pacific Islands students.

It is time to have an informed conversation about the new Cold War — and its implications for the Pacific Islands region, including Hawaii.

Terence Wesley-Smith is a professor at the Center for Pacific Islands Studies, School of Pacific and Asian Studies, University of Hawaii-Manoa; Tarcisius Kabutaulaka is the center’s director.