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The secret to upsetting a Football Bowl Subdivision team, if you are from the underdog Football Championship Subdivision, is really not much of a secret at all.
You just let the bigger, more well-heeled FBS (and usually home) team beat itself.
We bring this up because, after being a hunter of bigger game last week at then-23rd ranked Washington, the University of Hawaii returns to Halawa tonight to find itself the hunted by Central Arkansas on homecoming at Aloha Stadium.
The Rainbow Warriors, who have won 16 consecutive games against FCS competition dating to the 2000 season, are 14.5-point favorites over the 12th-ranked and unbeaten (3-0) Bears on Las Vegas betting lines.
And, except for one thing, the ’Bows (2-1) really shouldn’t have much to worry about tonight. But that exception has been a significant one: turnovers. Three games into this season eight interceptions and three lost fumbles have added up to 11 turnovers and UH’s most pronounced vulnerability, one that has haunted them throughout.
Coming into this week, UH had the distinction of being tied for having committed the most turnovers (11) and suffering the worst turnover margin (minus 3.0 per game) in the 130-member FBS. The Warriors’ eight interceptions given up are the most in the FBS.
FCS schools grant fewer full scholarships (85 to 63) than their FBS big brothers and generally have larger coaching staffs, bigger budgets and more amenities. So, FCS teams make their living in these games off FBS errors.
History tells us 18 of the 20 victories achieved by FCS teams over FBS opposition since 2016 were aided by a disparity in turnovers. UCA, which knocked off Western Kentucky in this year’s season opener, 35-28, accomplished it in part with a 2-0 edge in forcing turnovers. It did the same thing to Arkansas State in 2016.
That should inspire some attention to ball security on the UH sideline. Four turnovers very nearly cost UH in its last meeting with the Bears in 2009. The ’Bows needed a touchdown with 1 minute, 22 seconds left to rally past the Bears, 25-20.
The last time UH did stumble against an FCS opponent, it was three turnovers — two of them interceptions of the debuting quarterback, Nick Rolovich — that cost Hawaii in a 45-20 loss to Portland State.
With Rolovich as a head coach, UH is 8-4 when it has fewer turnovers than the opposition, 10-14 when it coughs up more and 2-5 when the teams are equal.
Remarkably this season UH has gotten to 2-1 despite having lost the turnover battle in all three games, none more noteworthy than the opener over Arizona, where UH coughed up six turnovers and needed a stop at the 1-yard line as time expired to preserve the victory.
But there was no sparing the ’Bows from a 3-0 differential in turnovers last week at Husky Stadium, where Washington, which had not forced a turnover in two games, inflicted a 52-20 beating. The Huskies victory was built partially on 17 points recycled off turnovers.
It has been eight games since UH last went without a turnover and tonight would be an opportune time to see the streak end. Or, potentially, risk ending its 16-game winning run over the FCS.
Reach Ferd Lewis at flewis@staradvertiser.com or 529-4820.
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