Mufi Hannemann and Colleen Hanabusa may have run last campaigns

Neither former Mayor Mufi Hannemann nor former U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa will rule out seeking future office, but both of their political careers could be over — especially with a record number of voters who overlooked them in last week’s mayoral primary election.

Voters from Honolulu to Hawaii County sent a clear message to longtime politicians including Big Island Mayor Harry Kim, Hannemann and Hanabusa, according to political analyst Jerry Burris:

“Step aside and give someone else a shot,” Burris said. “You’ve tried so many times already.”

Colin Moore, a University of Hawaii professor of political science and director of the Public Policy Center at UH, was even more blunt about future political prospects for Hannemann and Hanabusa.

“The message is pretty clear,” Moore said. “They’re done politically. I don’t see a path forward to any political office after these losses. They’ve both had several opportunities and in each case they haven’t won election.”

Hanabusa finished third and failed to place high enough to be part of the November runoff, which instead will see political neophytes Rick Blangiardi and Keith Amemiya going head to head. Hannemann ended up in fifth place.

Both Hanabusa and Hannemann have run for governor. But even with Gov. David Ige facing term limits in two years, Burris said: “I would be surprised if either ran for governor. They’re dead from running for office unless something unusual happens.”

Still, Moore could envision Hannemann in the governor’s race again in two years — despite two failed attempts already.

“He’s a risk taker,” Moore said. “But I would be surprised. It becomes difficult to generate endorsements and fund-raise after you’ve had a number of losing campaigns.”

Hanabusa, 69, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser Tuesday that she’s still analyzing Saturday night’s election results, but added: “Everyone will tell you never say never.”

In the last few days, Hanabusa said she’s been mulling the question of “what does this election mean and what does it mean for a future choice? That’s a long way of saying I really haven’t given it much thought.”

Hanabusa said her main concerns are for her volunteers.

“They’re the ones who give their heart and soul,” she said. “They have nothing to gain from all of this. You can’t thank them enough for all they do.”

Hannemann, 66, served as mayor from 2005 to 2010 and remains chief executive officer and president of the Hawai‘i Lodging &Tourism Association. He has now lost four straight elections, counting failed bids for governor in 2010; Congress in 2012; and governor in 2014.

Asked if he will or will not rule out running for future elected office, Hannemann said in a text to the Star- Advertiser:

“I have a very important responsibility at HLTA that is key to a safe and healthy statewide economic recovery so I don’t have any other plan than to put people back to work.”

During the mayoral campaign, which saw him endorsed by several unions, Hannemann emphasized his mayoral experience to help guide Honolulu through the COVID-19 pandemic, get people safely back to work and restart the local economy.

“But contrary to that message, it appears that the voters of the City and County of Honolulu were seeking a fresh face at City Hall,” Hannemann texted. “Whomever is elected mayor will face a very tough task. I stand ready to assist that person in the difficult tasks that await. I will continue to serve the people of Honolulu through my position with the Hawai‘i Lodging &Tourism Association, doing whatever I can to help restore our economy, and will work collaboratively with the governor, lieutenant governor, and all our mayors in this endeavor.”

Hanabusa, a labor attorney, also had union endorsements. She served in Congress from 2011 to 2015 and again from 2016 to 2019. Hanabusa also took an unsuccessful run at unseating Ige — a fellow Democrat — in 2018. She previously served in the state Senate and also was Senate president.

Hanabusa also served for 10 months on the board of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation before resigning to run for Congress. Hannemann, as mayor, was the primary force for what has now become HART’s troubled rail project.

Moore said he believes Hannemann’s association with rail — the largest public works project in island history — likely factored in his mayoral defeat.

More importantly, Moore said, both Hannemann and Hanabusa likely suffered from the largest number of votes ever cast in a Honolulu primary election — an election in which voters wanted “change.”

“They were running on their experience, but this was a ‘change election,’” Moore said. “I have a lot of empathy for candidates who face losses. It takes a tremendous amount to run for office after you’ve lost. It has to be hurtful to be rejected in such a public way, especially by new voters.”

While Burris and Moore doubt that Hannemann and Hanabusa will ever be elected to political office again, both mayoral candidates are likely to remain high-profile figures.

Hannemann, from his role in Hawaii’s tourism industry, will have a voice in how tourism rebounds from COVID-19.

And Hanabusa, “a very talented labor attorney … remains a very smart policymaker,” Moore said.

Even after multiple defeats at the polls, Moore said, “it’s hard for people who’ve been that prominent in politics to really recede from view.”