Column: Myanmar’s military and the West’s dilemmas

The Myanmar military faces a tough dilemma in its quest to hold onto power. Deadly force has not quelled the population, its security forces have suffered defections and its traditional patrons — China and Russia — have joined the international condemnation of the regime’s brutality.

Coming just seven weeks after Myanmar’s military leaders overthrew the government of President Min Wyint and State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, these developments prove Myanmar today is not the country of pre-2010. The world also has changed since Myanmar transitioned to democracy over 10 years ago. The junta cannot hide its atrocities, trust the continued loyalty of its junior ranks or rely on anti-Western alternatives for support.

In contrast to the first coup in the 1960s, the people of Myanmar have enjoyed 10 years of freedom and are willing to risk their lives to restore its taste. Today, the security forces face neighbors and relatives when they encounter demonstrators. Firing on strangers is one thing; killing someone they know and love is quite another.

At some point, as other dictators have learned, the troops will balk or split and when that happens, dictatorial rule enters its final days. It is too early to say that has happened but it has begun, and the junta should be worried about that.

Additionally, China today is not the isolated Maoist nation of 1960. Totalitarian it remains, but as a pragmatic matter, it enjoyed a growing influence with the Aung San Suu Kyi government and popularity among the Myanmar people for offering aid and trade opportunities after several Western governments sanctioned her government over its 2017 mistreatment of Myanmar’s Muslim Rohingya minority. That popular image served China’s long-term goals, and the coup demolished that popular goodwill. China’s joining the condemnation of the junta’s violence marks an effort to separate from its links to the past and present junta. However, its future actions will tell the tale.

The U.N. Security Council wants to impose new sanctions; their effectiveness will depend on international enforcement. However, it may prove more effective to offer economic incentives. China is no longer the region’s only economic alternative. India has a growing economy and recognizes that sanctions punish, not persuade, a nation. New Delhi also knows the limits of the Sino-Myanmar bilateral relationship, and has an interest in containing any Chinese gains in an Indian Ocean country that borders it. Japan also wants to contain China and is considering its options in Myanmar.

Finally, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a major trading bloc, with a vested interest in regional stability. Singapore, Myanmar’s largest individual foreign investor, and other members are wary of Myanmar descending into chaos or China gaining a major foothold there. The unified international position against the junta presents a new opportunity for integrated diplomatic and economic action. Unfortunately, authoritarian quasi-democracies and Communist parties still dominate several member states, and they are reluctant to join an effort to instill democracy. However, all have an interest in preventing a Myanmar civil war.

Therein lies the junta’s dilemma. Its hold on power is not assured. Its troops may prove unwilling to inflict the price required to suppress the opposition and its external supporters are inhibited by their own self-interests that may no longer coincide with the junta’s. Moreover, the world is watching shocking video of courageous opposition to violent oppression, images that compel united sympathy and action.

The West, particularly the United States, has an opportunity for united diplomatic and economic actions to lead the junta to restore democratic rule. Launching sanctions first, talks second is appropriate when dealing with hostile regimes like Iran and North Korea, but counterproductive against countries in transition, like Myanmar. Sanctions may win out over time, but always at cost in human lives and suffering.

Time for a different approach, one based on economic and political incentives. The first to engage in dialogue for change will influence Myanmar’s future — and supporting ASEAN’s efforts to negotiate a return to democratic rule and working with India offer the best path to democracy.

Carl O. Schuster, of Honolulu, is a retired Navy captain and former director of operations at U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.