Editorial: Oahu’s Tier 3 and beyond

We may not know enough about COVID-19 in Hawaii, but we know this much: It’s still not under control, but the vaccinations seem to be helping.

Hawaii has done well on getting shots in arms. The number of vaccinations of people 16 and older is approaching 50%, with more than 1.2 million shots given thus far. And the state appears on track to reach 70% — the low end of so-called herd immunity — in about a month, with 80-85% in seven weeks, according to Hilton Raethel, president of the Healthcare Association of Hawaii.

Still, as the number of vaccinations steadily increases, there is no corresponding steady decrease in the number of new positive cases on Oahu.

On Thursday, the state reported 99 additional cases on Oahu; on Friday it was 82. In early March, the number was as low as eight. The 7-day average of Oahu cases per day has been slowly creeping up after cratering in late February, according to the state Department of Health’s COVID tracking website. Still, the numbers are a marked improvement from the beginning of the year, when only 1% of the state’s population was vaccinated; 207 cases on Oahu were reported on Jan. 5. We’ve been well below that number ever since.

It’s in this context that Mayor Rick Blangiardi plots the city’s next steps in easing restrictions put in place to control the pandemic. This week he announced that the city would remain in Tier 3 for at least four more weeks, even though based on the case numbers, the current system calls for a return to the more restrictive Tier 2.

In fact, Blangiardi wants to revamp the tier system entirely, to take into account the number of vaccinations administered. While the details are still under wraps, Blangiardi has discussed increasing the maximum number of cases allows in Tier 3 from 49 to as many as 120.

Like many Honolulu residents, Blangiardi has been eager to move on from the mandates that have severely restricted access to public venues and activities, from bars to churches, from weddings to funerals. And the mayor’s latest decision is not wrong; returning to Tier 2 would force businesses to shrink, outdoor sports to shut down, and social gatherings to get smaller — even though the health landscape has changed significantly. There’s also no guarantee that the public, now accustomed to more freedom, would comply in the absence of a clear and present danger.

Even so, an abundance of caution is warranted. More contagious variants of COVID-19 already have reached Hawaii. A new double-mutant strain, first found in Mumbai, India, has reached California and could make its way here, according to Dr. Edward Desmond of the State Laboratories Division, who reported on the strain last month.

The best way forward remains essentially the same as it was in the beginning: Wear your mask, keep your distance, wash your hands. And most important, get fully vaccinated as soon as possible. We haven’t won yet.