Significant discrepancies between federal and state data on vaccination rates in Hawaii paint different pictures of how close the state is to achieving the 70% threshold that Gov. David Ige has set for dropping all COVID- 19 restrictions, including constraints on businesses and requirements that people wear masks indoors while in public settings.

Indeed, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts Hawaii on the verge of freedom from the complicated county tier systems that govern activities, with 68.4% of the state population, or 968,008 people, receiving at least one dose of a vaccine. If the CDC data posted Monday is correct, then it could be just a few more weeks until 70% of the population is fully vaccinated and life largely returns to normal.

But state officials say the federal data is wrong, and despite inquires with the CDC over the past two weeks, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser wasn’t able to get much of an explanation for what is driving the differences. State Department of Health data says that just 61% of the population, or 860,369 people, has received at least one shot, suggesting that it could be several more months before the state reaches its goal of fully vaccinating 70% of the population.

Differences between state and federal data have persisted for months, but with the state integrating vaccination rates into its metrics for reopening, it’s all the more important that data be accurate, not just for public health, but also for businesses seeking to recover.

“It’s challenging,” said Carl Bonham, executive director of the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization. “Obviously, because our policies are based on it, it would be nice to reconcile things.”

UHERO has been using the CDC data to model the state’s projected economic recovery.

“There have been some really, really big discrepancies,” he said, noting that if the CDC data was correct, then Hawaii would likely be fully reopening next month.

Adding to the confusion, the rates for fully vaccinated residents also differ, though in this case Hawaii’s data puts the rate higher at 55% of the population, compared with the CDC rate of 49.5%. That also matters because Hawaii has set benchmarks for easing restrictions once 60% of the population is fully vaccinated. At that point all travelers from the mainland, Alaska and U.S. territories can skip the testing and quarantine requirement with proof of vaccination through the state’s Safe Travels program. Restrictions on social gatherings and restaurants are also set to further ease.

Health Department spokesman Brooks Baehr said the department has “total confidence” in the state figures. He said state officials had identified incidents where the CDC was perhaps double-counting some vaccination data.

Kate Fowlie, a CDC spokeswoman, said at the beginning of this month that the federal and state data could differ for reasons such as “reporting schedules, data cleaning and lag time.” In a follow-up inquiry June 9, she said Hawaii has the most current data and that the “CDC is working with Hawaii to address some technical issues.” But there’s no indication of when the data might be reconciled.

Ultimately, Ige has made clear that the state’s reopening strategy will rest solely on state data.

The discrepancies have also affected Hawaii’s national rankings when it comes to vaccination rates, with the CDC data sometimes pushing the state to the top of the pack. For instance, Hawaii is practically tied with Massachusetts for second in the country when it comes to the percentage of the population receiving at least one dose of the vaccine. Hawaii falls to about seventh based on the state data.

While the data has caused confusion among those who track the numbers daily, Bonham said the underlying logic of relying on data to set policy makes sense.

“The announcements that the governor has made makes perfect sense, that you have a planned, complete reopening based on data. Hopefully, it’s all accurate,” said Bonham. “That provides an incentive for people to get vaccinated. It provides an incentive to businesses to provide incentives to get people vaccinated.”