On Politics: It’s a numbers game as Hawaii moves toward lofty COVID-vaccination goals, full reopening

Tucked just below Oregon and above the District of Columbia, Hawaii ranks 13th in the number of people fully vaccinated. That’s 709,205 people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID-19 vaccine distribution and administration data tracker.

There is a caveat to that ranking, as the Honolulu Star-Advertiser recently pointed out, because of a discrepancy between the state of Hawaii’s calculations and the federal number.

A CDC spokeswoman said at the beginning of this month that the federal and state data could differ for reasons such as reporting schedules, data cleaning and lag time. In a follow-up inquiry June 9, she said Hawaii has the most current data and that the “CDC is working with Hawaii to address some technical issues,” the newspaper reported.

The big question, however, is when will Hawaii first hit 60% vaccinated and then, more importantly, 70%.

Lt. Gov. Josh Green late last week broke out his own calculations that show 60% is not far away. He predicted reaching that within a week.

“We have been enticing people with chilli from Zippy’s and thousands of free Hawaiian Miles,” Green said in a Star-Advertiser interview.

“We are like 50,000 shots away. We are doing everything we can come up with. There isn’t anyone in the state who is not aware of the program.”

Brooks Baehr, spokesman for the state Department of Health’s COVID-19 response, speculates that Hawaii could reach a vaccination rate of 70% by early August, based on the state continuing to vaccinate 50,000 people a week. If the number of vaccinations grows to 60,000 shots per week, Hawaii could see a 70% vaccination rate by late July, Baehr said.

Green, whose predictions usually run between sunny and sunnier, has some doubts.

“It is going to be a slog to get to 70%,” Green said in the news report.

Green said reaching that number will be a significant challenge, explaining that because the 200,000-plus children under 12 who cannot receive the vaccine are included in the total population, the percentages change.

Looking at the math, Green said it means that 82% of residents who are eligible need to get the vaccine for the 70% threshold to be reached, which would allow for COVID-19 restrictions to be lifted.

Getting to 60% is good but 70% is the magic number.

Gov. David Ige has said that all social distancing restrictions will end once the state achieves a 70% vaccination rate, although he noted that the state Department of Health could establish new COVID-19 rules.

Green said if Hawaii residents just don’t get enough vaccinations to move the percentage, there are ways to readjust the calculations.

“I will propose to the governor a couple of other ways if we stall,” Green told the Star-Advertiser.

He figures that the base would grow if those vaccinated are combined with those safe because they have the virus — which includes “those now in the hospital with COVID, the existing case count now with COVID and people who have actually had COVID.”

Or the state could do as it has repeatedly done since the pandemic emerged more than a year ago, and just change the rules.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays. Reach him at 808onpolitics@gmail.com.