On Politics: Vicky Cayetano’s trial balloon in governor’s race would face prickly Democratic primary

Former Hawaii First Lady Vicky Cayetano last week launched a nicely prepared trial balloon to churn the political gossip about running for governor next year. Cayetano was first lady of Hawaii from 1997 to 2002. She and Gov. Ben Cayetano were married May 5, 1997, in Washington Place. Both had been previously married. During her tenure, she lobbied strongly to get a new governor’s residence built and turning Washington Place into a museum.

Now Cayetano, 65, a successful business executive, has moved past the “well maybe” stage of a campaign next year.

“I hope to bring a fresh perspective to the state government and how we look at problems and how we find solutions,” she said in a Honolulu Star-Advertiser report last week.

Two major Democrats are already informally in the race. Lt. Gov Josh Green and former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell had already held and scheduled fundraisers to run for governor next year, although neither has issued a formal declaration.

Cayetano has not set up a fundraiser or a campaign committee, but she is keen to run.

“During the time I’ve seen my husband in public service, he’s really inspired me with his commitment to making life better for the community,” Cayetano told the Star-Advertiser. “I haven’t officially declared my candidacy … but I think through the campaign, I will definitely be rolling out my plan.”

She has previously toyed with a campaign for Honolulu mayor, but never acted on her political impulse. She is clearly a capable campaigner: A Star-Bulletin story way back in 1997 noted that “Vicky Cayetano knows how to work a crowd — better than her husband, agree veteran Democratic and Republican hands.”

Cayetano wrote in his biography, “Ben: A Memoir,” how a 1998 poll showed him losing by 22%. “When voters were asked to name my major accomplishment, getting married to Vicky got the most votes.”

Now political analyst Colin Moore can see Cayetano as a strong candidate, “given her compelling personal story, popularity, and record in business, but it’s going to be an uphill battle.”

Moore, director of the University of Hawaii’s Public Policy Center, cautions that Cayetano has several political challenges.

“Her problem will be to craft a compelling reason about why she would make a better governor than the very popular LG. It’s not impossible, but it’s going to be a tough sell.”

Recently, Hawaii’s all-vote-by-mail elections have cranked up voter turnout, but primary elections, especially in nonpresidential years, don’t bring out voters.

Statewide primary turnout in 2018 was 38.6%, and four years earlier it was 41.5%.

Essentially, the primary election playground is reserved for dedicated Hawaii Democrats. Vicky Cayetano is a Republican who switched parties with her marriage to Ben Cayetano and has a strong reputation writing a success story in the local commercial laundry business.

In a Democratic primary, it might be better to be leading strikes instead of thriving businesses.

Moore correctly calculates that “Green will have a relatively easy time painting her as a conservative business owner who lacks the public-sector experience to enter the Governor’s Office during a time of crisis.”

Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi had similar problems, but his race was a nonpartisan one with just the two most popular getting to the general election. Hawaii’s Democratic primary makes it almost impossible for anyone but a lifetime party member to win a primary.

Cayetano has to nail down “I’m a Democrat,” before she can answer the question of whether she is the most popular Democrat.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays. Reach him at 808onpolitics@gmail.com.