Sjarif Goldstein: Getting ready for fantasy football? Just go in knowing that luck matters

Can you smell it in the air? That time of year is here.

The scent of overheating computers and fresh magazines is the sign that millions of people are going into overdrive preparing for …

… fantasy football.

In less than three decades, the number of Americans who play fantasy football has risen to nearly 50 million. Only about 20% are women, proof that they are still the smarter sex.

That’s 50 million Americans who can’t be bothered with learning how to do their own taxes but invest dozens of hours in prepping for an endeavor that will largely be decided by luck.

Before all you keyboard coaches get up in arms, keep in mind that I am one of you. Despite knowing that all the time I put into crafting trade proposals and poring over the free agent list in search of the player who will key my postseason run is likely a waste, still I play. And if you think that I am overstating how much of a factor luck is, well, let me provide you with an example that, if you’ve been playing for even a few years, might arouse in you the kind of traumatic flashbacks that require therapy.

Back in the 2000s, before we could all update our lineups on our smartphones, we had a newsroom fantasy league at the News Organization Formerly Known as the Star-Bulletin.

As you might imagine, about half the participants came from the sports department, a group whose job it was to read each day about the NFL. Without even trying we learned about which players were injured, who would start or see their workload increased and which teams had the best matchups each week.

The rest of the league was filled out with reporters, graphic artists, copy editors, whoever — basically a bunch of people with far less professional interest in the NFL than your dedicated servants in the sports department, and in many cases less personal interest. As is often the case with casual leagues such as this one, only about half of us attended the online draft, with the others autodrafting off Yahoo’s player rankings.

So who won the league? Dave Swann, a graphic artist who 1) skipped the draft; 2) never picked up a player or made a trade, and 3) never adjusted his lineup, whether for injuries or benchings. Yes, he even left his quarterback in — San Jose State legend Jeff Garcia, I believe it was — for his bye week.

His team was called Panzers and it rolled through our playoffs just like one, even after a solid but unspectacular regular season, because in fantasy football even when you do have a league full of managers who are paying attention, the champion is more often than not decided by whose players finish the season hot or who draws an opponent with injuries in the playoffs.

Despite all this, as I mentioned above, I continue to play after nearly 30 years. It started with baseball and branched out into football more than 20 years ago, with dabbles in basketball and even golf, hockey, auto racing and — you’re not going to believe this, but I swear it’s true — pop music.

Despite my years of first-hand experience and having some tricks of my own when it comes to fantasy sports, I will not use my monthly column to dole out fantasy football advice. There are many people who make a living at that, putting in many times more hours at this futile pursuit than I do. No, the first and only advice I will give you is this:

If you don’t play, don’t start. If you do play, don’t take it too seriously. Have fun more than anything. For goodness’ sake, don’t play for money. I’m not averse to gambling — I’ve made more than a few trips to Vegas sportsbooks — but this is worse than gambling. Imagine betting on a football team but not knowing who’s going to start at quarterback.

So as you kick back Thursday to watch the first preseason game (Steelers vs. Cowboys) to get an early read on if Dalton Schultz or Blake Jarwin is the tight end to target for Dallas this season … well, first of all, don’t do that. It will be Garrett Gilbert and Ben DiNucci throwing the passes for “America’s Team” — how many years after its last Super Bowl win can a team still be called that? — rather than Dak Prescott, so just enjoy the return of football and hope that we get a more normal season than we did last year.