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Hawaii’s race for governor is in the counting phase — not votes, but dollars.
The votes will come a year from now, with the truism being that votes follow dollars.
Popular or not, for a candidate to win a major race, he or she must flash their name around and it takes money to do that.
So the just-released compilation of campaign money shows Lt. Gov. Josh Green as a steady and strong campaign fundraiser in the race for governor.
The state Campaign Spending Commission reports show Kirk Caldwell has raised a minuscule $9,760 in campaign contributions over the past six months. That compares to Green, who took in $424,212 during the same period.
Those close to the Green campaign say Caldwell’s principal historic backers like developers and contractors have gravitated to Green. Fundraiser Lorrie Stone has a prominent role in Green’s campaign finance structure, according to campaign sources.
Caldwell, Honolulu’s former mayor, said in a campaign statement that he has spent the year reaching out to “community leaders on Oahu and all the neighbor islands, not on raising money.”
The Manoa Democrat can afford to spend some time watering the grassroots because his time as mayor has left him with a campaign war chest of more than a half million. Caldwell has a total of $509,202 and Green has $636,120.
Caldwell’s candidacy has two strikes against it: one of his making, and the other historic.
First, since the inception of the Honolulu rail project, Caldwell had tied his name to it. When former Gov. Ben Cayetano ran for mayor against Caldwell, the two were on opposite sides of the rail issue, with Caldwell a fervent supporter and Cayetano an avowed enemy. Rail’s public support has hovered around 50% for more than a decade, so politicians win as much as they lose by picking sides on the issue. Back rail and half of Honolulu supports you; oppose rail and half the town likes that. It is the classic “no win” issue.
Meanwhile, rail’s recent history has grown more troubled. The wheels don’t fit the tracks, a car door inexplicably opens while the test cars are moving, and most dismally, the project is several billions of dollars overbudget with no officials publicly saying how they will find the money.
Caldwell faces a historic political challenge: Republican Linda Lingle is the only former or incumbent mayor who has ever been elected governor. Mayors Frank Fasi and Mufi Hannemann, both well-known political leaders, repeatedly failed in gubernatorial elections. In comparison, three Hawaii lieutenant governors — George Ariyoshi, John Waihee and Ben Cayetano — stepped up to the governorship; and two others — Brian Schatz and Mazie Hirono — became U.S. senators.
In this mix, a potential GOP gubernatorial candidate, Honolulu City Councilwoman Andria Tupola, said last week that she will not run for governor. The only other potential major candidate, former first lady Vicky Cayetano, has hinted at a gubernatorial run — but since then, has been largely invisible.
Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays. Reach him at 808onpolitics@gmail.com.