David Shapiro: Coronavirus numbers make good case for further vigilance

From the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, we’ve been inundated with numbers.

First we were fixated on case counts, as Gov. David Ige issued his first emergency order on March 4, 2020, a few days before Hawaii recorded its first case. Statewide cases had barely hit 100 a few weeks later when Ige virtually shut down tourism with his 14-day visitor quarantine and county mayors ordered locals to stay at home.

The first surge of the virus reached a high of about 350 Hawaii cases in August 2020, with some 4,000 total local cases by then and 40 deaths.

But the restrictions seemed to work as cases dropped to double digits a month later and mostly stayed there until this summer with the help of vaccine introductions, except for spikes around major holidays. Tourism rebounded to unexpected highs, and local activity began to approach normalcy.

Then the delta variant of the virus arrived in July, and cases grew exponentially, reaching a seven-day average of nearly 870 new cases per day by September before new restrictions got them down to the 300s recently.

As case numbers became numbing, attention turned to numbers of hospitalizations, with a record of nearly 450 COVID-19 patients hospitalized at one point last month and the state exceeding its capacity of 223 licensed intensive care beds. Hundreds of medical personnel flew in from the mainland to assist.

Ige relieved medical facilities of liability if they become overburdened, and the Health Department published Crisis Standards of Care that raised the specter of health care rationing.

Fortunately, fewer cases and hospitalizations have removed that threat for now, but there’s still a number causing great alarm: COVID-19 deaths, which have been coming locally at nine, 10, 12 a day.

Hawaii deaths for the month of September were 193, by far the most of the pandemic in a month and nearly a quarter of the 801 fatalities recorded since COVID-19 arrived a year and a half ago.

Native Hawaiians have been hit especially hard, accounting for some 120 of the deaths — with 23 occurring in just one week in September.

These tragic numbers should be enough to end the mindless talk among COVID-19 deniers that this virus is no worse than the seasonal flu.

It’s beyond doubt that the delta surge has been driven by the unvaccinated and critical that the state, counties and private employers keep up pressure on resisters to get vaccinated if they want to work or gain entry to restaurants, bars and other public accommodations.

Universal vaccination is the best chance of ending this pandemic, and mandates are working locally and nationally, with the Hawaii vaccination rate, which was long stuck below 60%, creeping up to 68%.

This is no time for compromises that leave the public unnecessarily exposed to the stubbornly unprotected.

The numbers are thankfully going down, but we’ve seen how fast they can surge back if we let down our guard.

Reach David Shapiro at volcanicash@gmail.com.