Dave Reardon: Here are a few keys to Hawaii becoming bowl eligible

Anybody have a good recipe for crow?

Unless the University of Hawaii football team wins the rest of its games it will be time for me to eat some.

The evidence is right there in black and white, etched indelibly in cyberspace. A few days before the start of the season, on paper, to me, the Warriors looked better than most of their opponents and I predicted they would go 9-4. The key words, of course, are “on paper.”

Most of us haven’t played paper football since high school. In real football, the Warriors are 3-4 halfway through the season.

If we’re going to quibble, the exact midpoint of the regular season was halftime of last week’s 34-17 loss at Nevada. (And technically, that’s assuming no overtime in the remaining games.)

But if you’re an optimistic fan UH is at the midway point right now, because you figure the Warriors can win at least four of the six games left to finish with a record above .500 and qualify for a bowl game.

We also shouldn’t forget that it’s possible to secure a bowl invitation with a 6-7 ledger. That’s what UH did in 2016 when it went on to beat Middle Tennessee State in the Hawaii Bowl.

Saturday’s loss at Nevada was huge, maybe pivotal. The Warriors did not build off the momentum of their 27-24 upset of Fresno State the previous game. A win at Reno would have meant UH would be 2-1 in the Mountain West and could still entertain thoughts of playing in the conference championship game.

And what if fans had been allowed at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex for the 17-13 loss to San Jose State? Can a crowd — even a small one — be worth four points?

OK, back to reality.

The Warriors will likely be favored in just two more games; this Saturday against New Mexico State (which is 1-6, including its 41-21 loss to UH at Las Cruces last month) and probably Nov. 13 at UNLV, which is 0-6.

The other four opponents — Utah State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Wyoming — are a combined 17-7.

Here are some keys if Hawaii is to have a chance for the four wins it needs to finish the regular season with a winning record:

1. Take care of the ball: This is one of the few things all coaches agree on. Wins like the one against Portland State, when Hawaii fumbled six times and dropped passes with regularity, are rare. UH was lucky it wasn’t playing an FBS team in its home opener.

More often it’s like the Fresno State and Nevada games: If you win the turnover battle 6-1, you win the game, and if you lose it 5-0, you lose the game.

2. Third-down — actually, every-down — efficiency: The Warriors offense is converting on third down just 29% of the time, with a correspondingly large number of three-and-outs. And UH isn’t doing enough on the other downs for it not to matter. When you’re not moving the ball and scoring, it means time of possession and field position matter more than they should and can lead to other bad things, like your defense being worn out.

3. Get healthy, stay healthy: When running back Dae Dae Hunter blasted off for touchdown runs of 75 and 81 yards in the first quarter at Nevada, it appeared the Warriors could keep up with the Pack. But UH’s leading rusher didn’t play after a second-quarter shoulder injury. That meant Nevada’s defense could tee off on freshman quarterback Brayden Schager. Schager has a ton of potential and played with great poise in the Fresno win; but at this point the Warriors need injured starting quarterback Chevan Cordeiro’s experience and dual-threat ability.

4. The kicking game: Special teams are always a mixed bag of success and failure. For Hawaii, the extremes have been Matthew Shipley’s place-kicking on the good side and the team’s punt protection on the bad.

Shipley has been rock-steady, making eight of nine field goals — including the game-winner against Fresno State — and all 22 extra-point attempts. He has also averaged 42 yards per punt.

But the Warriors suffered their fourth blocked punt of the season last Saturday. It was costly, leading to a Nevada touchdown.

5. Right place, right time: Is it unrealistic to expect the defense to play as well every game as it did against Fresno State, when the Warriors seemed to know what the Bulldogs were going to do before they themselves did throughout the game? The fact that UH did it once against a team that was heavily favored means it’s possible.

Now, maybe it’s more likely since there will be fans at the final three home games to cheer them on.