Column: Hit ‘refresh’ between pandemic and recession

Now is a precious time to regenerate and fortify our health and that of the community we live in. True, spring is in the air. The COVID-19 pandemic is largely behind us. Visitor counts are nearly back to normal, and visitor spending is unprecedented. The state currently enjoys a $2 billion budget surplus, and with it, a rebate to taxpayers is in the works. A large increase in the minimum wage is headed to Gov. David Ige’s desk for his signature.

Look up, though. There are storm clouds overhead. The refreshed sense of security may be short-lived. Build resilience.

Prepare for a recession. A $100 or $300 rebate per person is but a transient, wafer- thin buffer against the affordability crisis, owing to rampant inflation. The Federal Reserve Board will raise interest rates 2% to 3% in the coming year or so. However, during the past quarter the U.S. economy shrank by 1.4%.

A recession is defined as two quarters of negative growth. If we have the same again this quarter, it will have arrived. The inflation rate is at a staggering 8.5%. Historically, the Fed has never managed to avoid a recession with a soft landing by raising rates when inflation is this high.

Raising the minimum wage and prioritizing affordable housing are imperative. However, businesses already face a tight labor market and supply chain challenges. The war in Ukraine has caused food and energy insecurity in much of the globe and constrained the free flow of goods. The war will not end soon.

During the pandemic, federal debt rocketed to 129% from 107% of GDP. If we enter a recession, that debt will become more difficult to service. With an uptick in the cost of borrowing, enterprises now on the brink will fail unless there is respite. We may be about to witness the great unraveling of business as we know it.

Europe is also struggling with increased debt and high inflation. China, the globe’s third major economic engine, is projected to grow at a paltry 4.5% this year with COVID-19 lockdowns in its largest cities and continuing tariffs.

Climate change brings risks of sea level rise, storms, floods, drought and crop failures. India’s heat wave broke century-old rec­ords in March, and open-air landfills around Delhi spontaneously burst into flames. Future pandemics could arise from human and animal migration, and changing disease vectors.

Hit refresh: Realize that if you are reading this column, the sky isn’t falling. Take a few deep breaths. Be at peace, pray, meditate, be mindful. Cultivate joy and the natural state of creativity. There is much we can do, especially if we come from the heart and with clarity of mind. Let’s regenerate our health, reconnect with our purpose, nourish our relationships and build resilience for what might come.

Resilience begins with health. After the social isolation of COVID-19, we might feel rusty, anxious or awkward. It could take some effort to loosen up. Reach out for new friendships or rekindle old ones, and work to build and support community. If the community is genuinely healthy, we are stronger together. Discerning trust and flexibility are a healing salve for fear and anxiety.

Many of us have let our physical health languish. Is it time for a checkup? Perhaps preventive screening or a recheck of known chronic illness? Is it time to lose a few pounds gained during the pandemic? For many, that extra weight is accompanied by sleep apnea, high blood pressure, elevated cholesterol or new- onset diabetes. Remember also that food and physical activity can be medicinal. Build stamina. Sleep. Learn how to keep your immune system strong.

Hawaii still gets one-third of its oil from Russia, and oil comprises a large percentage of the energy used to make electricity. Don’t run on empty. Keep gas tanks at least half full. Keep candles and flashlights on hand. It may be a good time to get solar PV on the roof with battery storage to lower costs and no longer be dependent on the grid. Incentives exist for both, and more electric vehicles are coming on the market. Have your disaster ditch bag ready.

Regarding finances, if possible, now is also a good time to save rather than indulge. Try to keep some physical cash on hand rather than relying solely on the bank’s digital number.

Investing in resilience includes attention to food and water security. Edible rather than ornamental gardens are a good place to start if there is space. Much can be accomplished, even on the lanai.

While a $300 rebate is real money, perhaps the best use of Hawaii’s $2 billion budget surplus would be to establish food and energy reserves and prepare for the day the containerships might not come.

Ira Zunin, M.D., M.P.H., M.B.A., is a practicing physician. He is medical director of Manakai o Malama Integrative Healthcare Group and Rehabilitation Center and CEO of Global Advisory Services Inc. Please submit your questions to info@manakaiomalama.com.