Hawaii’s COVID variant report detects ‘Kraken’ in 3 counties

Hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients are ticking up following the holidays, with an average of 94 per day over the past week, according to data from the Healthcare Association of Hawaii.

That average marks an increase from 88 per day the previous week, and 81 per day the week prior.

The seven-day average of COVID-19 patients in intensive care also increased to eight compared with five per day two weeks prior.

Given that infection counts lag by a few weeks, the continued rise in hospitalizations reflects a growth in transmission over Christmas and New Year’s, according to Tim Brown, an infectious disease expert from the East-West Center in Manoa.

“This growth may continue for another week or two,” Brown said in a weekly update. “If XBB.1.5 becomes a significant player, hospitalizations could grow even more rapidly, so we’ll keep an eye out for that.”

Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5, nicknamed the “Kraken” due to its formidable growth advantage, was detected in Honolulu wastewater in late December, according to the state Department of Health’s Jan. 3 wastewater report, prior to being detected in clinical cases.

On Wednesday DOH released its latest variant report, showing that XBB.1.5 has now been detected via genome sequencing of PCR- positive samples in Honolulu County as well as Maui and Hawaii counties.

The subvariant XBB.1.5 makes up an estimated 5% of variants circulating in Hawaii, based on specimens for the two-week period ending Dec. 31.

Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1 makes up 45%, while BQ.1 makes up 20% and BA.5 makes up 10% of variant proportions in the state.

Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 — first detected in New York and on the rise nationally — is a descendent of XBB, which is a recombinant of two BA.2 sublineages. The XBB variant drove up cases in Singapore.

The World Health Organization, in its risk assessment of XBB.1.5, noted its rapid increase in the Northeast U.S., and evidence of a growth advantage likely to lead to global predominance. WHO said, however, there was no data on the severity of XBB.1.5. Also, WHO noted that its confidence was limited because it only has data from the United States.

The daily average of new COVID-19 cases, meanwhile, reflected a downward trend this week, with DOH on Wednesday reporting a seven-day average of 162 compared with 170 on Jan. 11.

The state’s average positivity rate also declined to 6.8% compared with 7.5% the previous week.

COVID-19 vaccination rates have declined steeply over the past few months — from 105,000 doses administered in October to only about 53,000 in November, according to the state’s data. Approximately 32,000 doses were administered in December, and about 10,000 have been administered so far this month.

To date, 24.4% of Hawaii’s eligible population has received the bivalent booster.

The DOH reported five more deaths, bringing the state’s COVID-19 death toll to 1,775.