Local opposition to the Thirty-Meter Telescope, biomass energy production and transgenic technologies (commonly known as genetically modified organisms, or GMOs) have been well documented in this newspaper. According to economist Paul Brewbaker, techno-skepticism and developmental resistance have a direct impact on the growth of Hawaii’s economy.
Founder of the consulting firm TZ Economics, Brewbaker (formerly a University of Hawaii lecturer and Bank of Hawaii economist) has been analyzing and forecasting trends in Hawaii’s economy for over 35 years. I had a chance to speak to him recently about anti-technology bias and the possible impact of the Trump administration on the local economy.
Question: According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Hawaii’s per capita gross domestic product, or GDP, has declined since 2017 compared with the national average. How does this slide affect the average resident?
Answer: Average output per person in Hawaii equaled the national average seven years ago. Today it is more than 10% below national average. Because output is the source of your income, the average Hawaii resident today is 10% poorer than the average American today. There is less for residents in Hawaii, and more for residents elsewhere in America, so residents are leaving Hawaii in numbers larger than all other sources of population growth combined.
Q: You’ve stated “dismantle telescopes — don’t build them” as a factor that has precipitated the GDP slide. Why is that? Can you point to other causes?
A: There are many issues, comprising anti-tourism denialism, anti-science-based industry denialism, and anti-development denialism that populist political leaders in Hawaii now embrace, and their messaging to the world reflects their objectives to decrease tourism, shun science-based industry and obstruct home-building and urban development. Messaging from Hawaii to investors and to travelers reflects these populist attitudes. Do not come to Hawaii. Do not invest in Hawaii. We don’t build telescopes in Hawaii. That’s a fact. We dismantle telescopes in Hawaii. That’s a fact. Three of the four counties in Hawaii banned transgenic modification, including Hawaii County. There’s some irony there: Hilo High School grad Jennifer Doudna was the inventor of CRISPR-Cas9 gene-editing technology and winner of the 2021 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. Message received.
Q: We are also currently experiencing a decline in the tourism sector. Do you see a connection between the issues hindering technology and innovation investment with the downturn in tourism?
A: Many people, possibly most residents, want tourism to decline. The Hawaii Tourism Authority wants tourism to decline, which makes it official. The authority openly says so. The mayor of Honolulu openly says that 8 million tourists is better than 10 million tourists. County governments actively are engaged in legislative deliberations to decrease absolutely the numbers of lodging units in their jurisdictions. The connection between issues hindering investment and tourism’s downturn is democratically elected governments giving voters what they want. That’s the connection.
Q: In our conversation you mentioned the importance of infrastructure projects for economic growth. What specific projects do you have in mind?
A: Try completing the Lahaina Bypass, for starters. Try tunnels through the Waianae mountains and multilane divided highway extension of the H-2 freeway to Leeward Oahu. Try an actual multilane divided highway from Hilo to Kona on the Big Island, where two-fifths of Hawaii traffic fatalities occur with one-eighth of the state’s population. Try a tunnel through the West Maui Mountains and a transit solution shortcut to the Lahaina-Kaanapali-Napili-Kapalua conurbation from the Kahului-Wailuku conurbation. Then there are Hawaii’s airports, which have consistently ranked near the bottom of all U.S. airports. Try putting solar panels on top of school buildings and the airport, and then air-condition them with the electricity from the solar panels. Medium-rise, medium-density condominium development should be enabled by infrastructure provision (water, sewerage capacity) to every station site on the Skyline on Oahu, built to the height of the train station pedestal.
Q: What impact do you believe the election of Trump could play in Hawaii’s economy?
A: Trump trade policies (higher tariffs on top of the tariffs he raised in the first administration) will raise costs of imported goods. Hawaii consumers will be adversely affected directly by higher prices on these products (e.g., food). Trump policies also, by increasing federal budget deficits, will increase U.S. real interest rates. Higher U.S. real interest rates, other things equal, also will make the U.S. dollar more expensive than it otherwise would have been. This will make travel to and lodging in Hawaii more expensive to Japanese and other foreign tourists.
Rob Kay, a Honolulu-based writer, covers technology, health and sustainability. He is the creator of fijiguide.com and can be reached at Robertfredkay@gmail.com.
