Looming tariff hikes that have already begun to affect shipping routes and consumer behavior could have outsized effects in Hawaii, where nearly all goods must be imported — many of them from China.
Hawaii retailers and small- business owners are bracing for steep increases in the cost of consumer goods as the Trump administration moves forward with plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to as high as 145%.
“A lot of the consumer products we get here in Hawaii are made in China,” said Eric Harwit, a University of Hawaii at Manoa Asian Studies professor who specializes in China-U.S. trade and technology. “If the Trump administration keeps the import tariffs of 145% on most of those products, people here are going to pay higher prices for everything from shoes to building materials.”
Tina Yamaki, president of the Retail Merchants of Hawaii, said her members are already feeling squeezed.
“We’ve seen prices increase — not necessarily because of tariffs yet, but because of other factors like rising shipping costs,” she said. “Retailers are trying to figure out how they’re going to pay for all of this.”
Yamaki stressed that Hawaii’s dependence on imports leaves businesses vulnerable.
“We don’t manufacture a lot of stuff here. Even materials to make clothing, gold and silver for jewelry, packaging for taro chips — everything has to be imported, usually through the mainland first, and then on to Hawaii. That adds shipping costs on top of tariffs.”
According to Harwit, although there are no specific details yet on when the tariffs will take effect or how high they’ll be, the trade slowdown is already starting to affect trans-Pacific shipping routes.
The New York Times reported that container traffic at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to drop over 35% next week compared to the same time last year, and about a quarter of May’s scheduled ships have been canceled due to low volume. Many companies rushed to import goods before Trump’s tariffs took effect, but now, as the trade war escalates, major importers are pulling back.
Some large retailers and home improvement stores have nearly stopped importing from China altogether.
“What harms the L.A. port also affects shipping to Hawaii,” he said. “If containers don’t leave China for the mainland U.S., it disrupts the whole system, and that ripple effect will be felt here.”
He noted that even local exports like coffee and macadamia nuts could be indirectly affected — if, for example, local producers can’t access packaging materials or ingredients sourced from China.
“Small businesses can’t get the supplies they need,” Harwit said. “Plastic packaging for agricultural products like macadamia nuts often comes from China. If those materials don’t get shipped here, those small businesses are going to suffer. Costcos and Walmarts might pass higher prices on to consumers, but small retailers may not survive.”
Yamaki echoed those concerns.
“A lot of the small businesses I talk to are very scared right now,” she said. “They’re already dealing with a minimum wage increase in January, COVID loans coming due, lease rent back payments — and now tariffs. It’s just one thing on top of another.”
She added, “I don’t think there’s a business that’s exempt from it. From the metals to make jewelry, to the packaging for taro chips — everything is impacted. People are price-conscious, and small businesses are already looking for the best deals.”
Harwit noted that about 11% of Hawaii’s total foreign imports come from China, mostly in the form of everyday consumer products.
“We don’t import cars from China — that’s Japan and South Korea — but we do import a lot of packaging, toys, fireworks, shoes and back-to-school supplies. And if those tariffs stick, they’re going to get more expensive — or vanish from local shelves entirely.”
Already, the effects are beginning to show.
“In the last month or so, we’ve seen people rushing to Costco and car dealerships to buy products ahead of the tariffs,” Harwit said, pointing to panic-buying that mirrors early COVID-era behavior. “It’s a short-term response, but the long-term impact is going to hit small manufacturers and retailers who rely on these products.”
Harwit said the policy’s broader effects could isolate the U.S. from global trade networks.
“China may shift focus to Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, U.S. consumers are left with fewer options and higher prices,” he said. “We’re really isolating ourselves economically, and that’s not good for the American economy.”
President Donald Trump, during a Cabinet meeting Wednesday, acknowledged the potential cost to consumers, saying that instead of receiving 30 dolls for Christmas, American children might get two — and they’d be more expensive.
Yamaki noted that while the tariffs haven’t fully kicked in yet, the warning signs are clear.
“At least with tariffs, the stores are still open. People can still shop,” she said. “The question is, at what price point are they willing to pay?”
The high cost of doing business in Hawaii magnifies every new burden, she said.
“Retailers start to ask, ‘can I afford this? How do I keep my doors open? How do I pay my employees?’” Yamaki said.
Still, Yamaki remains cautiously hopeful.
“I’m hoping we can push through this, and I hope all businesses can survive,” she said.
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The New York Times contributed to this report.
