Switch to maglev before it’s too late

Recent correspondence concerning the rail project ranges from killing it completely and losing federal funding, to terminating the alignment at Aloha Stadium or Aala Park or placing it at grade.

Those proposing such changes may not realize their plans could result in paying back federal monies received to date.

In a response from the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) to a Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transpor- tation (HART) letter, it was made clear that shortening the system would violate terms of the Full Funding Grant Agreement (FFGA).

The FTA letter states: "Only a 20-mile grade separated fixed rail system from East Kapolei to the Ala Moana Center operating on an exclusive right of way and powered by third rail electrification that propels light metro fully automated driverless rail vehicles qualifies for the funds provided under the FFGA."

HART representatives and others use this to state that the city cannot change from its steel wheels on steel rails (SWSR) technology. This claim is suspect because a "Record of Decision" document states that a municipality can change with appropriate rationale provided to the FTA.

An urban magnetic levitation (maglev) system perfectly fits the FFGA descrip- tion, so a change to maglev would leave the rail infrastructure system intact and save Oahu taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars in both guideway construction and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs.

A maglev supplier also could meet the other FFGA specifications for 21 stations and 80 rail vehicles. A proposal for maglev will likely — again — bring up the "too late to change now" refrain, despite an impending sale of train supplier Ansaldo and financial problems raising SWSR costs.

It is important to note that federal funding for rail O&M will not be provided to any municipality with a population exceeding 200,000. With fare box revenues covering about 30 percent of O&M, and no mention of special fees from transit-oriented developments, guess who pays the difference?

That difference will be substantial, with O&M costs of $110 million at the start of 20-mile operations increasing to $145 million by 2030.

Using data provided by a maglev supplier, we calculate O&M savings of more than $50 million at the start and more than $70 million yearly in 2030. Thirty-year costs for a 20-mile guideway will exceed $5 billion for SWSR, while maglev savings will be above $2 billion.

By the time the SWSR 20-mile alignment becomes operational, there will be urban maglevs in several nations, including the United States. Conversion to maglev would not only ease the burden on taxpayers but also provide an operationally superior and much more cost-effective system, one that would even be a tourist attraction ("See our beautiful island as you smoothly ride on air").

Will it be business as usual in Honolulu Hale despite the rising and increasingly vocal opposition to rail?

Will a backlash in the 2016 election bring the current project to a "screeching" (sorry for the pun on steel-wheels noise) halt under new leadership?

If such a taxpayer revolution occurs, developers will see reduced demand for their projects and the unions would lose thousands of promised jobs.

Hence, now is the time for the mayor, the City Council and HART to lead a course correction to maglev. Not doing so means continuing opposition to rail and voter outrage at likely property tax increases as rail costs mount.

Conversion to maglev will not be simple but is doable, and would give meaning to the term "world class" when discussing the Honolulu rapid transit project.