When political races get close in Hawaii, the big question turns to how the neighbor islands will vote.

Oahu may have the most voters, but if candidates are running even in Honolulu, then the balance can tip with the decisions of folks on Maui, Kauai and Hawaii island.

It has been called "the neighbor island strategy": Split Oahu and win the Democratic blocks far away from Honolulu.

The classic example was the battle for governor between Gov. George Ariyoshi and Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi.

Although he was popular and feisty on Oahu, Fasi failed to pick up bedrock Democrats on the neighbor islands, and lost.

D.G. "Andy" Anderson has run in or guided statewide races for governor for several decades.

"As I recall, the neighbor islands was always the issue in the governor’s race, when tight," Anderson said in an interview.

Last week I asked a half dozen akamai observers on the neighbor islands what they think is going on this year, with a view of how the neighbor islands will affect the crucial primary race for the U.S. Senate between U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa and U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz. All were promised anonymity to elicit honest answers.

Both candidates can see the neighbor islands tipping the race to them.

Hanabusa can argue that the tradition old-guard Democratic voters, many of whom are Japanese-Americans, will vote for her, while Schatz can see new neighbor island voters, concerned about the environment and genetic engineering in the food supply, voting for him.

"It started out with Schatz ahead, but now Hanabusa has caught up and it is even," said one long-time campaign strategist on Hawaii island.

"The AJA vote is even more reliable than the senior citizen vote, so I think Hanabusa can win, just like Ariyoshi," said the Hawaii islander.

A Hawaii island resident in Waimea noted that when Schatz and Hanabusa held a debate in Hilo recently, "Hanabusa won the ‘T-shirt war’ — lots more wearing her shirt … most were well over 70 years old and mostly AJA."

But, she added, that at a gathering for Schatz several months ago, "it was pretty well attended on short notice by quite a diverse group. I think he impressed quite a few that evening."

A longtime observer on Kauai added that there are questions about the actual political strength of the anti-GMO movement.

He said that while those opposed to genetically modified foods are a visible group, their strength in numbers and ability to produce voters on Election Day have not been measured.

"It is just not clear whether anti-GMO folks are voters — a lot of them are new here," he said, adding that Schatz has been able to pick up some AJA support in areas where Hanabusa had shown strength.

On Maui, a fellow journalist said, "My unofficial straw poll of long-time political observers split right down the middle."

She predicted that Schatz will win Maui, but added that several Maui political leaders are privately predicting a Hanabusa win.

The race for the Senate seat left vacant by the death of U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye continues to be close, and the split opinions showing up on the neighbor islands mirror that.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.