A flattening out in tourism arrivals has stalled Hawaii’s economic recovery, but a delayed boost from the construction sector could lift the state out of its doldrums in 2015.

Construction, which has been slow to take over as a growth driver despite the Oahu rail project and all the condo tower projects underway in Kakaako, should gain momentum next year, according to a report from a group of University of Hawaii economists.

"The building upturn has been slow to show up in construction jobs or in the contracting tax base," University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization said in its report due out Friday. "However, overall permitting has been more positive. Considering the large number of planned condo projects on Oahu, rail construction and the need for single-family homes, we remain confident that much stronger performance is in the pipeline."

UHERO said that after a small net gain this year, construction jobs will expand by about 7 percent to 8 percent in the 2015-2016 period, heading higher in 2018 near the level of the previous peak in 2007.

Still, UHERO offered a cautiously optimistic forecast in its report.

"Hawaii is managing to shrug off the weakness in tourism and overall job growth that developed in the second half of last year," UHERO said. "While we do not see a return to robust growth, somewhat better conditions should prevail over the next year, and the long-delayed pickup in construction will be an important part of this."

UHERO revised lower its forecast for gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, to 2.5 percent growth this year and 3.3 percent growth in 2015. Those were down from 2.9 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, in UHERO’s February report.

However, UHERO raised its projections for visitor arrivals to 1.0 percent growth this year and 2.2 percent in 2015 from 0.7 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, in the earlier report.

"Better economic conditions in the U.S. and abroad will support some improvement, consistent with recent increases in scheduled airline seats," UHERO said. "U.S. arrivals will firm while Japa­nese visitor numbers will be negative for the year. Visitors from other countries will rise fastest, but down from the heady rates of increase of recent years."

Through the middle of this year, visitor arrivals were down a scant 0.1 percent to 4.09 million, according to data released Monday from the Hawaii Tourism Authority.

Job growth will return to pre-recession levels by the third quarter of this year after peaking in early 2008, UHERO said. The report forecast job growth to average 1.3 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2015, but that was down from UHERO’s earlier projection of 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively, in its February report.

"There will be significant differences in growth rates across sectors, and aggregate gains will trend down in subsequent years, particularly as the pace of construction job growth fades and eventually turns negative late in the decade," the report said.

UHERO said it expects the unemployment rate that has hovered at 4.4 percent the last three months — down from its peak of 7.1 percent at the low point of the cycle — to average at that level this year and edge down further to 4.1 percent in 2015 and 3.8 percent in 2016.

Inflation should remain benign and rise at a projected 1.8 percent this year before increasing by 2.9 percent in 2015, UHERO said. That’s compares with 1.8 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, in UHERO’s earlier forecast.