Nearly two-thirds of Hawaii residents 50 years and older do not believe they’ll be able to afford even one year in a nursing home when they need long-term care, according to a new AARP survey.

The report scheduled to be released today found that nearly 6 in 10 seniors — 59 percent — believe they will need nursing care in the future, but fewer than 40 percent say they have saved for it or have long-term care insurance to cover their costs.

The survey of 800 Hawaii residents statewide points to "an elder care crisis in the making, as the vanguard of island boomers approaches their 70s and the cost of long-term care extends beyond the reach of many," AARP, which has 148,000 local members, said in a news release.

More than half the respondents — 56 percent — said they don’t currently have long-term care insurance. Most of them had annual household incomes of less than $75,000 and didn’t have a college education. Half of them also didn’t think they could afford the cost of one year of in-home services.

"There’s a growing realization among many residents that they lack the means to pay for costs associated with their aging," Stuart Ho, former chairman of the Hawaii Long-Term Care Commission and former AARP Hawaii president, said in the release. "At the same time, many older adults are apparently in denial about who will provide the care they’ll likely need and how they’re going to pay for it."

While AARP doesn’t sell insurance, it receives royalties from AARP-endorsed carriers for the use of its name.

According to a Genworth Cost of Care Survey in 2012, the statewide average for private nursing home care in Hawaii totaled $126,000 a year, and $117,000 a year for a semiprivate room. The statewide average was $58,000 a year for home health aide services.

"I thought of getting (long-term care insurance) at 30, but that was too early. I wanted to get it at 50, but I can’t afford it because I got laid off (three years ago)," said Hono­lulu resident Renee Tom, 51. "I’m working three jobs, and I’m still not making ends meet. I’m living by a thread right now."

Respondents without coverage identified high costs as the main barrier to obtaining long-term care insurance, said Bruce Bottorff, AARP Hawaii’s associate state director.

"I don’t think there is any question there are a number of competing demands on theresidents of Hawaii, given the high cost of food, housing, transportation andutilities," Bottorff said. "We have a couple of options. We can do nothing and let everyone fendfor themselves, in which case many people will suffer, especially in their olderyears, or we can pursue thoughtful policy solutions that reflect ourvalues and are affordable for families and our society."

The telephone survey was conducted Nov. 9-26. More than half the respondents were not AARP members. The study has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.