How precisely does Ed Case win the Senate? What does Linda Lingle do to win? And what is the formula Mazie Hirono must employ to win next year?
Those were the questions I posed to a cadre of political consultants, observers and politicians.
With the race more than a year away, there is much time for speculation. If you are a candidate, however, now is when you should be forming a fairly specific campaign with goals and objectives listed, and some sort of a blueprint of your victory.
While they toil, we will take care of the speculation.
"Ed needs to get union help," one adviser said, adding that while he doesn’t know what Case will do to get support, he only knows Case needs it.
"Mazie needs to get a personality," the adviser continued. "Before people are going to elect Mazie Hirono, she has to show that she deserves it because of what she has done."
"Lingle can win it all," the same consultant said. "What she needs to do is straddle the middle and get those people to vote for her."
Another consultant and former office holder worried that Hirono may not be strong enough to win a race against the savvy former GOP Gov. Lingle.
"It won’t be because of her; Mazie can only win if the labor groups and progressives rally like they did for Sen. Akaka against Case," he said.
Hirono probably got some help this week when, during an interview with the Maui News, Hawaii’s senior Sen. Daniel K. Inouye took a step toward supporting Hirono.
"I’ve had a good working relationship with Mazie Hirono. In all the years she served the state of Hawaii, I’ve had a good working relationship (with her).
"We get along, and so it would please me if we could continue that relationship," Inouye told the neighbor island paper.
Another veteran politician, who requested anonymity, worried about Hirono’s phlegmatic personality, saying she is "too low-key and quiet."
"She needs to show some spunk and excite the voter," he said.
As for Case, the officeholder said the former Democratic congressman needs to show he has the vision and critical thinking to care about the future of Hawaii and its voters.
"All we know today is he is against the Jones Act (which restricts shipping between Hawaii and the mainland to U.S. vessels).
And Lingle? "She will have to come up with answers to deal with two disasters that happened on her watch: the Furlough Fridays and losing the Superferry."
Case, according to another campaign strategist, is a tough campaigner, noting that he came within 9 percentage points of beating Akaka.
"To some people, Ed is their worst nightmare; he is independent and he leans to the right," the consultant said.
But the question all four consultants toyed with, is whether Hirono or Case is strong enough to beat Lingle in what is expected to be an expensive and brutal general election.
"If the question is, can Mazie beat Lingle, the answer is no. But, I don’t think she (Hirono) can beat Ed," one consultant said.
Others question whether Case has paid enough attention to the grassroots of the Democratic Party and is acceptable to the progressive wing.
"He is attractive, he is as smart as a whip, but during his entire career, he has never courted those people," the consultant said.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics every Tuesday, Friday and Sunday. Reach him at borreca@staradvertiser.com.
