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President Barack Obama, better known for his rhetorical flourishes, yesterday took a more direct route in delivering a message to a weary and jaded public. Hopes for economic recovery, Obama told a joint session of Congress, lie not in a silver-bullet or radical change in course but in American willingness to persist — or, in the words of a Republican predecessor, to “stay the course.”
The difference between the Democrat now in office and the GOP’s iconic Ronald Reagan is, of course, the prescription itself. Reagan famously urged reforms centered on tax cuts, while Obama is combining targeted tax breaks with spending on maintaining the country’s infrastructure and its work force of construction workers, teachers and first responders.
Still, the reason for hope in the president’s $447 billion American Jobs Act is precisely what makes it anything but a break from tradition: At least some of the measures ought to resonate with both sides of the partisan aisle.
As Obama pointed out repeatedly, most are measures that have been endorsed by Republicans as well as Democrats. And as he pointed out exactly seven times during the half-hour address, Congress ought to pass the bill “right away.”
Anything that might persuade people that their government has operational settings other than “gridlock” is a positive message to send. Nationally, the economy is still sputtering, with employers and employees alike too jittery to make any investments. Corporations that have profited from a boost in productivity are wary about hiring, while consumers— unemployed or nervous about their prospects — are hanging onto their money, too.
Locally, Hawaii’s Council on Revenues hasn’t been very encouraging, either. Recent projections show 14.5 percent growth for the current fiscal year — but that’s primarily due to temporary tax law changes that are expected to bring in more than $600 million over the next two fiscal years to help balance the budget and end the previous administration’s practice of delaying tax refunds. That means that when the tax changes lapse, other engines had better be revved up to power the economy without that help, and none of the experts sound very confident they will be.
So the trick is to balance some short-term spending intended to prime the economic pump with a demonstration of the nation’s ability to rein in its long-term deficit and debt.
Obama’s plan approximates that balance, at least in theory. He promised that the new spending would be offset through Congress making additional cuts in the pending deficit-reduction scheme, but he disappointed many viewers by postponing until next week the unveiling of any of his own suggested ways to cut or drive up revenue through tax reform. That diminished the credibility of a speech that otherwise hit many of the right notes. Some of Obama’s major components: >> A $175 billion one-year extension and expansion of the employee payroll tax holiday that next year would cut the tax rate in half, to 3.1 percent.
>> A $65 billion program to encourage small businesses to hire. Within limits, this initiative would halve employer payroll taxes as well and give a total payroll tax holiday to employers who increase the payroll either through hiring or raising salaries.
>> Broader homeowner access to mortgage refinancing, which Obama said his administration could do on its own.
>> A $5 billion program extending a tax break for companies that invest in new plant and equipment.
There were other bright spots, including Obama’s call for trade agreements that, brokered carefully, could resuscitate the flagging U.S. manufacturing sector and restore some global cachet to the “Made in America” label. And much of Obama’s affirmative push gives a sorely needed advantage to the long-term unemployed, veterans and young people, among the groups most vulnerable in a down economy.
Rather than being simply charitable, that’s sensible. The critical importance of giving people hope should not be overlooked. It’s confidence across the board that ultimately will help America edge its way back to economic health, and hearing a measure of confidence from the president’s tone yesterday was welcome indeed.