Tourist count takes tumble

Even though August visitor arrivals to Hawaii took their worst monthly drop in more than two years, the Hawaii Tourism Authority has set its sights on surpassing its peak arrivals and spending figures next year.

August arrivals fell by 4.2 percent to 651,529 as tourists from Hawaii’s top U.S. West and U.S. East markets dropped for the third month in a row. The decline was the worst since June 2009 when arrivals fell 5.2 percent to 550,421. While foreign tourists helped to push August spending to $1.08 billion, the 2.3 percent gain was the lowest in 15 months.

Still HTA members think the industry can top 2006’s peak of 7.628 million in arrivals and 2007’s peak of $12.8 billion in spending next year.

HTA set a record-breaking 2012 target of $13.3 billion in spending and 7.69 million arrivals at its monthly meeting on Thursday.

"If we can get through 2012 without a financial collapse or an oil crisis, then I think it will certainly be the best year that we’ve had in a long time," said Aqua Hotels & Resorts CEO Ben Rafter.

Tourism executives are optimistic because spending and arrivals so far this year are outperforming the same period in 2010, said HTA President and CEO Mike McCartney.

For the first eight months of the year, overall visitor spending was up 14.1 percent to $8.25 billion, and total arrivals grew by 2.5 percent to about 4.88 million visitors, according to the HTA.

"We remain confident that the projected increases for the remainder of the year will help Hawaii achieve our 2011 targets," McCartney said.

McCartney said anticipated increases in the number of airline seats from Korea, Japan, China and Australia will bring more tourists to Hawaii through 2012 and that favorable exchange rates will keep them spending more.

Based on more airline seats and continued recovery from international markets, HTA increased its total spending growth target for 2012 by 0.7 percentage points. If achieved, it would represent a 5.5 percent improvement over HTA’s $12.6 billion 2011 spending target. The board increased 2012 spending targets to $4.4 billion for the U.S. West, $3.3 billion for the U.S. East, $2.3 billion for Japan and $936 million for Canada.

HTA similarly increased its arrivals growth target by 1.5 percentage points. The new 2012 goal represents a 3 percent increase from HTA’s 2011 arrivals target of 7.46 million visitors. The board increased 2012 arrivals objectives to 3.08 million visitors from the U.S. West, 1.69 million from the U.S. East, 1.32 million from Japan and 468,062 from Canada.

HTA Chairman Ron Williams called the targets aggressive in some categories. The board approved them based on strong third- and fourth-quarter bookings and the expectation of further tourism improvement.

"It does appear aggressive to some, but if you look at the increased activity with aircraft, we feel that this is obtainable," said David Uchiyama, HTA’s vice president of brand management.

There are signs in the market that a record-breaking 2012 is a real possibility, said Jerry Westenhaver, general manager of the Hyatt Regency Waikiki Beach Resort & Spa.

"We are definitely seeing an uptick in the Asia-Pacific market, and as more flights are added, we’ll see an even wider slice of the population," Westenhaver said.

October, November and December are robust, he said.

"We’re almost sold out for the Honolulu Marathon, which takes place Dec. 11," Westenhaver said. "We expect to see one of the strongest fourth quarters in years, and a lot of that has a lot to do with the Asia-Pacific market."

While August and September yielded solid revenue and arrivals across Aqua Hotels & Resorts’ properties, Rafter, the CEO, said he remains concerned about market uncertainty.

Members of Hawaii’s visitor industry are closely watching for the possibility of a European financial collapse, a worsening of the U.S. economy or dozens of other factors that could dampen tourism, Rafter said.

"The third and fourth quarter look great," Rafter said. "However, 2012 has been the most difficult year to forecast."

Hawaii News Now video: August visitor numbers down, but spending up