With something approaching the glide ratio of that six-ton, big-as-a-bus satellite falling back to Earth last week, the global economy looks grim.
It used to be that economists tried to protect us from inflation; runaway inflation was the really bad thing. Now there is something worse.
We are worried about deflation, which means a big drop in the prices of everything. If demand lessens, prices drop, businesses can’t afford to pay people as much and everything goes south.
The Great Depression and Japan’s "Lost Decade" are two examples of deflation.
With deflation as the new economic worry, the proper exercise is to see how we handled the last really bad local economy.
If there ever was a Hawaii governor who knew hard-scrabble economic times, it was Ben Cayetano. His eight years in office were all about struggling to keep your head above water in the fierce tides of economic recession and stagnation.
Cayetano’s 1996 "Restoring Hawaii’s Economic Momentum" prepared by Seiji Naya, the former state business and economic development head, may be a useful guide.
"It now appears that prolonged and fundamental changes in underlying economic conditions may affect Hawaii’s growth potential and make it difficult for us to attain the high rates of real economic growth of the past," the report warned.
In the report, there was some stuff that worked and we should try them again; some advice was worthwhile but not heeded; and some ideas were just off target.
Cayetano was wise to see Hawaii’s economy as part of the larger Asia-Pacific picture, knowing that what is happening offshore will soon wash up here.
In his report, Naya highlighted the success of his department in bringing together local planners and developers to help Cebu in the Philippines develop its historic waterfront to be modeled after Aloha Tower Marketplace.
Today while Aloha Tower is still just barely hanging on, the Cebu waterfront sports a beautiful new development aided by a new casino.
One Philippine economist noted that "economic success of Cebu is the result of positioning, serious planning, an industrious population and local governments which understand the needs of business."
Unlike the diaphanous exhortations of Gov. Neil Abercrombie that if everyone paddles together we will be okay, Cayetano came out with a solid six-point plan, including the No. 1 job: "Removing government barriers to economic activity."
Like all contemporary Hawaii governors, Cayetano called for spending more on state-sponsored construction projects — but unlike Abercrombie’s call for more taxes to pay for state government, Cayetano’s plan had a revived private economy doing the heavy lifting.
Some things should have worked back in 1996, but never did, and we are all poorer for it.
For instance Cayetano seized on the idea of transforming "Honolulu’s waterfront into a panoramic architectural and natural attraction to rival that of other world famous ports." Today, the plans are again being renewed, but the reality is more about moving out the homeless encampments.
If the Abercrombie administration was to look for guidance from Cayetano’s 15-year-old plans, it should be in cutting the costs of doing business in Hawaii.
For instance, the Cayetano plan called for removing affordable housing requirements in new projects and also cutting back on insurance regulation.
If the national and global economy continues in its downward course, Abercrombie will need to do more than read old plans; he will have to redirect serious and realistic measures to preserve the state’s economy.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.