In political time, November 2012 is eons away. If you measured political time the way geologists do, then one year would make Mauna Kea just a glowing red spot on the Pacific Ocean’s floor.

So poll results about next year’s U.S. Senate race are even more inexact than most.

With that said, the new public opinion poll released this week by the Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows former Gov. Linda Lingle is a huge threat to Hawaii Democrats.

“This is something that Democrats should be nervous about,” advises Tom Jensen, director of PPP.

The poll shows Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono would beat Lingle by 6 percentage points, 48-42, and former Rep. Ed Case would lose to Lingle by 2 percentage points.

But the key is that Lingle is showing a dramatic surge from previous polls, which had her losing by more than 20 points. Democrats note that Lingle’s campaign for Hawaii’s open Senate seat is just starting.

“I think the key for her is to get a quarter of the Democratic vote,” Jensen says. “If she gets a quarter of the vote, she can win.”

The survey shows Lingle would take 17 percent of the Democrat vote against Hirono and 24 percent against Case.

The poll surveyed 568 voters across the state Oct. 13-16 and has a margin of error of 4.1 percent. It was not taken for any campaign or political organization, according to PPP.

The politics of PPP are not in doubt.

“Lingle’s candidacy does give Republicans a chance for a pick up that would be devastating to Democratic hopes of holding onto the Senate,” says Dean Debham, the president of PPP.

A GOP source notes

that the poll shows similar results to Lingle’s own

internal surveys.

Lingle in this poll scores 46 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable, a higher unfavorable rating than either Case or Hirono.

“Lingle was definitely a lot less popular when she left office than she has ever been. She is in much better shape than she was a year ago,” Jensen says.

He speculates that perhaps after being out of office for a year, folks are saying “well maybe we weren’t happy with Linda Lingle but when you look at her eight years we pretty much liked her.”

The big change is that Lingle can now be compared to current Gov. Neil Abercrombie. It is expected even as a Republican in a Democratic state, Lingle will look pretty good next to Abercrombie.

Jensen says his survey checked in on the favorable rating of Abercrombie.

He says PPP was expecting to release a poll Friday showing that “Gov. Abercrombie is one of the least popular governors in the country.”

Could that be a factor in next year’s race?

With the caveats that Hawaii is still a year away from deciding its new U.S. senator and the reasons for why people vote are all speculation — yes.

“If you are mad at your Democratic governor it could have voters wondering whether voting for more Democrats is the way to go,” says Jensen.

Republicans say it could be the tipping point if voters acknowledge that they think Lingle was on the right track.