The University of Hawaii athletic department expects to return to red ink after a breakthrough year in the black largely because football ticket revenues will be $500,000 — or more — below projections this season.

Athletic director Jim Donovan told the Board of Regents Committee on University Audits on Monday that ticket sales originally projected to reach $5 million are trending toward $4.5 million and could go lower.

"I have to caution it could be worse," Donovan told the committee. "Hopefully not much worse."

Football is the biggest breadwinner for a 19-sport athletic department that operates on a $30 million budget, and with UH picked to win the Western Athletic Conference in both WAC coaches and media preseason polls, Donovan said officials in July "budgeted for nine or 10 wins." But the Warriors, who suffered a series of upsets, are 5-6 with two games remaining, have no chance to win the conference and won’t qualify for a berth in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl if they fail to win both.

The Warriors are averaging 29,011 through the Aloha Stadium turnstiles, and if the final figure dips below 28,000, it would represent the lowest point since the 0-12 season of 1998. UH averaged 33,835 per game through seven regular-season home games in 2010.

UH officials said they hope to draw in the neighborhood of 30,000 for the Dec. 3 season finale against former rival Brigham Young but are concerned about the turnout for Saturday’s game with 2-10 Tulane, the Conference USA tail-ender.

An independent auditor told the committee the athletic department was $858,000 in the black for the fiscal year that closed June 30, 2011, a better finish than the department had projected. It was the second close on the plus side in a decade and was aided by $818,000 in student fees. The only other year in the black, 2008, was a result of UH’s appearance in the Sugar Bowl.

UH had hoped a second consecutive plus finish would help to pay down a portion of the $9 million accumulated net deficit that has built up since 2002.

But Donovan said projections for the current fiscal year, which closes June 30, 2012, show a $982,798 deficit. In addition to the football shortfall, Donovan said the loss of WAC revenue as a penalty for the school’s move to the Mountain West Conference in 2012 and costs involved in replacing Boise State on the schedule will contribute to a deficit.

As a condition of its departure from the WAC, UH forfeits its share of pooled WAC revenue, which could be as much as $1 million. When Boise State left the WAC, it forced UH to scramble to fill the hole on its schedule and cost nearly $400,000 to secure Tulane as a late replacement.

Committee Chairman James Lee said finishing in the black was "phenomenal given the economic conditions," and lauded the department’s ability to hold down expenses while increasing revenue. But Lee said he was concerned about the "football situation." He said, "I think we will be looking at that very carefully."

Lee said the status of head coach Greg McMackin, who has one season remaining on a five-year, $1.15 million-per-year contract, will be evaluated later.

"I think it is wise to wait until the end of the season," Lee said.