After months of being gnawed on by the budget bears, Gov. Neil Abercrombie finally had some good news last week when Standard & Poors gave him a thumbs up.
"Gov. Abercrombie’s willingness to implement aggressive solutions … to balance the budget," the bond rating agency said, was one of the reason not to change Hawaii financial ratings.
If it is the nature of politicians to find that one rose among the weeds, the rest of us have to note that there sure are a lot of weeds out there.
A reading of the entire Standard & Poors 11-page report indicates that Hawaii’s relatively good marks are not specifically about Abercrombie being at the wheel, but rather that the Hawaii Constitution gives strong powers to whomever is governor.
If the report is not destined to the best seller list, it does sum up the actions already taken and are likely to happen.
Simply put, Abercrombie balanced the budget by draining the hurricane relief fund and the rainy day fund; now he must either stop services or raise taxes.
"For fiscals 2012 and 2013, deficit-closing solutions are more structural. Deficits are not carried forward, but soft revenue performance (meaning don’t plan on winning the lottery) and an expiration of the previous solutions (meaning, we already used the rainy day and hurricane funds) contribute to a projected shortfall of revenue (meaning no more money) compared to baseline spending trends, necessitating either adjusted service levels (meaning ask not what the state did for you, because Santa’s bag is empty) or enhanced revenues (meaning raise taxes) for the upcoming biennium," the report said.
The bond rating agency says Hawaii’s economy mostly gets money from two places: tourism and federal funding. Standard & Poors is not impressed with either as a solid solution.
"The state’s reliance on tourism … (has) reduced general fund tax revenue growth rates and employment levels," the report says.
"A relatively high level of federal funding in the state budget exposes the state’s fiscal performance to revenue loss should the federal government enact significant federal deficit reduction," warns Standard & Poors.
Abercrombie showed off the Standard & Poors report in connection with his announcement that the state was selling $1.3 billion in bonds, most of it to finance construction projects either on-going or about to be let.
Some of the money will go to refinancing old, more expensive bonds. The money saved is supposed to go to pay back the rainy day and hurricane funds.
While the Abercrombie team stressed that bond money would not be used to pay back the emergency funds, at least one akamai legislator, Maui Democrat Rep. Joe Souki warns that using borrowed money would be a big mistake.
"Bonds shouldn’t be used for cash purposes. California used bonds to replace cash shortages — it contributes to the problems and compounds them," Souki said.
Finally, the bond agency warns that Hawaii is still on the bubble and its strong bond rating could suffer.
"If actual revenue growth is significantly below the state’s projections or if the state is unable to further reduce spending, the rating could come under pressure," the report stated.
So what the report says is that the glass is either half full or half empty, but if you drop it, the glass breaks.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
