Kim Jong Il’s death opens possibilities

The huge missile tracking radar known as the Sea-Based X-Band Radar — informally known as the giant floating golf ball — is a familiar sight in Oahu waters. Its mission is to guard against potential military threats from overseas, and with North Korea under new management, there are more reasons than ever to cast a wary eye across the Pacific.

In June 2009, then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates ordered the tracker from Pearl Harbor to sea as North Korea prepared a space launch across the Pacific. The missile fell pitifully short of Hawaii, but it was a sobering reminder of the unpredictable nature of the Hermit Kingdom. So was the test-firing of short-range missiles last Monday, the same day the death of dictator Kim Jong Il was announced. There was plenty of speculation about the timing of the tests, but no consensus; the experts remain puzzled by the ramifications of the rise of the young Kim Jong Un to power.

One such panel of experts, which convened at the East-West Center on Tuesday, offered sound advice on dealing with North Korea. It noted that the new regime may be largely steered by a "regency" or power-sharing arrangement, and that while immediate provocations are unlikely, it’s possible that the regime may want to demonstrate its authority with further demonstrations of its nuclear capability.

President Barack Obama, who arrived on Oahu last night for his Christmas vacation, has been understandably cautious and recently sought coordination with allies in dealing with Pyongyang. These are uncertain times, too, for policymakers dealing with North Korea. Obama is seeking re-election, and South Korea will choose a successor to conservative President Lee Myung Bak, who has taken a harder line with Pyongyang than his predecessor. Obama and Lee have maintained a unified stance toward the North, and it’s hoped that such common purpose will be maintained, regardless of who is elected in both nations.

Kim Jong Il’s death also is believed to have temporarily dislodged progress toward the U.S. providing humanitarian assistance to the North. The Christian Science Monitor reported that plans were near completion to provide 20,000 tons of nutritional assistance per month in return for North Korea halting its uranium enrichment program. Such an arrangement would be both unprecedented and welcome, but the U.S. should insist that any food distribution through North Korea be monitored closely to verify that the aid is not being diverted to the military.

Kim Jong Un, believed to be aged 27 or 28, came upon the public scene little more than a year ago, was given the military rank equivalent to general and now the moniker of "outstanding leader." Whether he will have any real power over his nuclear-armed nation remains a huge question. Observers are reduced to wondering whether his resemblance to his revered grandfather has any significance. As noted by East-West Center panelist Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum’s Center for Strategic & International Studies in Hono-lulu: "We’re all guessing."