It took a decade, but Honolulu-based investment adviser Richard Dole finally has won the Star-Advertiser’s annual investment contest.

In a rocky year for the stock market, Dole posted the only profitable return out of four local experts with a 7.7 percent gain that boosted his hypothetical $20,000 portfolio to $21,543.29 by year-end. He has participated in the contest every year since it began in 2002.

It was a year that featured a congressional debate about the debt ceiling, a U.S. credit downgrade and the eurozone debt crisis.

"There was a flight to quality," Dole, CEO of Dole Capital LLC, said about investors’ penchant for safer investments.

Norm Caris, a Kauai resident and manager of institutional sales for Caris and Co., was second as his portfolio lost 7 percent to $18,606.66. Barry Hyman, private client group vice president for the Maui branch of FIM Group Ltd., fell 23.4 percent to $15,320.61. And Dwight Melton, co-founder of the Hawaii Stocks and Options Group, declined 24.9 percent to $15,016.55.

"The only financial forecast I was confident to make as of the 2011 year-end was that the SEC (Southeastern Conference) would win the BCS National Championship, which will be a financial victory for the SEC," said Dole, making a no-lose prognostication since both teams who played last week for the college football championship were both from the SEC.

Dole, whose portfolio was down 8.9 percent after three quarters, finished strong as his five picks posted an 18.3 percent return in the final three months of the year.

Newport, a supplier of scientific and technical instruments, was his best performer with a 25.9 percent gain, followed by Pfizer, up 23.6 percent.

He acknowledges, though, that the best market last year was the bond market where the 10-year Treasury bond showed double-digit total returns with yields dipping below 2 percent.

"The stock market essentially went nowhere," he said.

For the year, the Dow Jones industrial average had a total return, including reinvested dividends, of 8.4 percent; the Standard & Poor’s 500 index edged up 2.1 percent; and the Nasdaq composite index fell 0.8 percent.

Caris, whose portfolio rose just 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, called 2011 "a stock picker’s market."

"(It was) characterized by volatility due to the crisis in Europe, as well as poor policy coming out of Washington," he said. "I would note that the Hawaiian economy is suffering from the same kind of policies."

Caris, who has been bullish on technology stocks, rode Intel to a 14.7 percent gain in the fourth quarter. He also had double-digit winners in Ford (up 11.3 percent) and Collective Brands (up 10.9 percent), the owner of Payless ShoeSource.

Hyman’s fourth-quarter performance also fell flat with a 0.1 percent gain. His best performers were networking giant Cisco System (up 17.1 percent) and Hong Kong developer Cheung Kong Ltd. (up 10.1 percent).

Hyman, who had won the contest two years in a row, said investors should look at stocks outside the U.S.

"With global stock valuations well below historic averages, the prices of many have priced in worst-case scenarios," Hyman said. "I suspect things are not going to get much worse fundamentally."

Melton had a torrid comeback in the fourth quarter as his portfolio soared 39.5 percent. But the hole he was climbing out of was too deep after being down 46.2 percent through three quarters. All four of his portfolio picks had gains of at least 31 percent in the quarter with Direxion Energy Bull 3X, an energy index fund, leading the way up 49.1 percent.

"Wall Street’s performance during 2011 was a lot of noise, with a series of spirited rallies and frenetic selloffs along the way, but relatively little change," he said.

A long line of winners

Champions of the Star-Advertiser’s annual survey of best investment ideas:

* Deceased

Notes: 2005: The first year that investors were allowed to change picks at the end of each quarter. 2004: The first year that investors were given a hypothetical $20,000 portfolio. 2002-2003: Investors’ results were calculated by averaging the return of all their selections