Hawaii’s top Democrat, Gov. Neil Abercrombie, is starting to assume his role as cheerleader-in-chief for the party faithful in this election year.

Last weekend he was the featured speaker at an Oahu Democratic Party meeting.

The gathering was held to start organizing the party for the March caucuses, which will end with the selection of President Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee.

The race for president, however, is not the issue in Hawaii, unless you want to argue about how much more than 60 percent the president will get. The issue is the United States Senate and keeping it blue.

For Democrats both in Hawaii and across the country, the great worry is that with Democrats having to defend 23 seats and the Republicans with just 10 incumbents up for election, the Senate in 2013 could be Republican.

Hawaii is mostly considered to remain a Democratic state, with either U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono or former U.S. Rep. Ed Case winning the race in November.

But that trust in Democrats in Hawaii is not universal. The Cook Political Report, a well-respected, nonpartisan online election analysis website, rates Hawaii as a "toss-up," meaning it could go either for a Democrat or for former Gov. Linda Lingle.

The report rates elections on a seven-point competitive scale, ranging from "solid Democrat" through "solid Republican."

Other election predictions that have Hawaii as "likely Democrat" include Five Thirty Eight and Real Clear Politics. The website for University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, Roll Call, a Washington, D.C., paper and the Rothenberg Political Report dub Hawaii as "leans Democratic."

No one has Hawaii as leaning, likely or safe Republican territory. So Lingle is correct to say she is not sailing in calm waters. Lingle has responded by running a carefully managed, extremely well-financed and organized campaign.

Her endorsement by the police officers union, a good, but not game-changing pat on the back, got reams more notice than Hirono’s mumbled endorsement by the local AFL-CIO last September.

If Lingle somehow won the support of the AFL-CIO, you can be sure that every voter in the state would soon be clutching an autographed DVD of the event.

Abercrombie, according to those attending the Saturday meeting, is still warning against Democrats dropping their guard.

He warned that the balance between Democrats and Republicans could rest with Hawaii’s election to fill the seat being left vacant by the retirement of U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka.

For local Democrats, losing the Senate means the powers of Hawaii’s senior U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye would be somewhat diminished, but certainly not extinguished. For instance, Inouye would go from chairman of Appropriations to ranking member of the committee, but in the minority.

On a national level, of course, losing the Senate would mean a political sea change. If Obama retains the presidency, but has to spend four years with a GOP Congress, it is not likely that much legislation, either Democrat or Republican, would move. A GOP president and a GOP Congress would see to the dismantling of much of Obama’s legacy, including repealing national health care coverage.

So Abercrombie is telling the party faithful that this election in Hawaii is all about the balance of power for the nation.

"We can’t afford to lose it," Abercrombie said.

So far the national parties have done little more than throat-clearing toward the Hawaii race — but if Abercrombie’s predictions are correct, you can expect 2012 to be the year of the battle for Hawaii.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.