The economy looked far too dreary last year for the dawning of any "New Day for Hawaii," and although prospects have brightened for today’s convening of the 2012 Legislature, it’s not yet time to exhale.
Hopes for a sunnier fiscal outlook were buoyed toward year’s end with a relatively rosy projection from the state Council on Revenues, but they had to be ratcheted back after the council’s Jan. 5 update: 11.5 percent revenue growth for the fiscal year that ends in June. That’s still good news, but it’s a drop from the previous rate of 14.5 percent projected in September. And that means $130 million less in tax revenue for the state this fiscal year and $138 million less in 2013.
The takeaway: Lawmakers have to remain focused on the state’s longterm fiscal health, concentrating spending on projects to strengthen safety-net services and on reforms and investments that improve the state’s economic capacity.
Lawmakers and Gov. Neil Abercrombie already are aware that the administration’s request for $188 million in new spending will have to be curtailed severely. And, according to Senate Majority Leader Brickwood Galuteria, the word is already out from leadership that this is not the time for "wedge" issues.
That’s a good instinct overall. But given the fiscal worries, it will be hard to avoid the nearly annual pitch for, and debate over, legalized casino gambling; we remain skeptical that this can be viewed as any kind of solution.
However, there are other concerns on which discussions should be more fruitful.
» The tax burden: When staring into the abyss of a deficit, it’s certainly tempting to find a solution in additional taxes and fees, as the 2011 session demonstrated. But this is not 2011, and while it’s still not smooth sailing, the budgetary turbulence seems to have calmed. Rather than adding new revenue boosters, it would be better this session to put the state on a more sustainable footing for the long haul by making the tax system more even and predictable — a boon for business-planning purposes.
» The unemployment insurance fund: It would be wise to begin to replenish the unemployment insurance fund by an incremental raising of the tax on businesses, but certainly not back to the previous levels that produced a surplus. Analysis indicates the fund is currently only slightly below recommended levels, and while the fund needs to be healthy enough to sustain claims while elevated joblessness still persists, the increase should be only enough to achieve solvency.
» Pension reform: The state has to come to terms with its unfunded liability for the Employees’ Retirement System; the ERS administrator, Wesley Machida, set that figure at $7.1 billion. This is factored into the state’s credit rating, which means it can affect the cost of financing state projects far into the future. Among the needed reforms is a curb of the practice of "spiking" by employees who inflate their retirement checks by padding it with overtime payments in their last years of work.
» Borrowing: Abercrombie completed a bond sale, in part to help replenish the rainy-day and hurricane funds that were raided to cover the deficit last session and to finance construction projects already in the state pipeline. This remains basically a sound plan, although changing economic projections will require some amendment. However, the proposal by some in the legislative leadership to borrow even more for a program of "shovel-ready" projects is ill-advised. It makes no sense to pile on new debt when there is still a logjam of contracts produced by Hawaii’s inefficient procurement system. Streamlining that process would make more sense.
» Health care: Of all the safety-net reinforcements needed, efforts to bolster the islands’ tottering health care delivery system should be paramount. Several proposals, such as bills to have hospitals self-insure to gain federal funds for Medicaid expenses, deserve consideration. Some state outlays, such as bills to subsidize emergency services and reopen an organ transplant center following the closure of Hawaii Medical Center hospitals, would be worthy investments.
Many other needs, such as Hawaii’s drive for energy security and educational reform, also deserve consideration. And as lawmakers dig into their annual mountain of bills, they need to use a sensible matrix for evaluating which ones should rise to the top. Insisting that legislation support new business activity and further the state’s economic recovery should be the prime directive.