Hawaii Poll data suggest exciting election ahead

Repeat after me: The only poll that matters is the one taken on Election Day.

Now that the caution is out of the way, let’s start rolling around in the numbers.

The latest Hawaii Poll, taken by Ward Research from Jan. 26 to Feb. 5, is an extensive review of Hawaii’s big political races for the primary season.

Perhaps the "whoa" moment is former Gov. Ben Cayetano’s big lead in the race for Honolulu mayor. The 72-year-old, two-term Democratic governor, picked up 44 percent of the vote, compared to 35 percent for current Mayor Peter Carlisle and 16 percent for former state House member Kirk Caldwell.

Even he was surprised — happy, but still surprised — to be leading in the poll.

"In all of my big races I’ve been behind, so I know that being ahead at this particular point doesn’t mean that much," Cayetano said during his campaign headquarters opening on Sunday.

At that event, he attracted an amazingly eclectic coalition of supporters, including: Hawaii’s first lady, Dr. Nancie Caraway, GOP state Sen. Sam Slom, former head of the Hawaii Libertarian Party Tracy Ryan, and Democrats state Rep. Della Au Belatti and state Sen. Clayton Hee.

They are uniting around a candidate who appears to be forming a campaign that sounds like the somewhat-cranky orders from an overworked parent.

"Put that back; we can’t afford that," Cayetano seems to be saying as the city eyes the $5.3 billion heavy rail transit plan.

It sure sounds like Cayetano is saying, "I told you to clean up your room before you go out," as he tells Honolulu that he wants the city to fix its sewers, fill its potholes and patch those water pipes before straying into other endeavors.

According to all reports, Cayetano was a big softie of a dad with his own kids, so his tough love may be more municipal rather than paternal.

Cayetano the Gruff could be a better fit for the cranky 2012 electorate, which according to the poll is liking our politicians a tad less than it did last year.

For instance, Carlisle’s job performance has dropped from 64 percent to 55 percent.

Gov. Neil Abercrombie went from 50 percent to 39 percent job approval. President Barack Obama dropped from an unsustainable 74 percent to 69 percent approval.

Voters have changed their mind on former Mayor Mufi Hannemann. Last year, 53 percent reported a favorable opinion. This year, Hannemann shot up to 59 percent among 2nd Congressional District voters, a big change, considering the beating he took in his loss to Abercrombie in the 2010 Democratic primary.

Finally, the Hawaii Poll has a fascinating cross-tab. Voters were asked whom they preferred in the Democratic primary: Ed Case or U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono. Case garnered 36 percent, compared to Hirono’s 56 percent. The poll then matched up both Case and Hirono against Linda Lingle in the general election and both Democrats handily beat the former GOP governor.

The interesting part is that when the vote is parsed, it shows that if Hirono wins the primary, she is likely to get just half of the Case voters, with the other half going to Lingle. But if Case wins the primary, he would get 71 percent of the Hirono votes. That analysis shows that among Case’s Democrats, many are not that comfortable with a progressive such as Hirono.

Add to that the open question of Cayetano’s campaign. If the former Democratic governor’s popularity actually draws the anti-rail conservatives to the primary, it could serve the unintended consequence of drawing more voters to Case’s column.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.