Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s job approval rating is 39 percent, an indication that the Democrat has not shaken the remnants of a wobbly first year in charge.
A new Hawaii Poll found that even traditional Democrats and union workers, the foundation of the governor’s political support, are split or unhappy with his performance.
His job approval rating has slipped since the last Hawaii Poll in May, when it was 50 percent, but has improved from a Public Policy Polling survey in October, when it was 30 percent, at the time the lowest of any governor in the nation.
Abercrombie declined to comment on the poll results. "He remains focused on moving forward," said Donalyn Dela Cruz, the governor’s spokeswoman.
Political analysts believe Abercrombie has made strides over the past few months, completing a record bond sale and releasing a modest supplemental budget draft in tune with the economic recovery. But many observers think the governor needs a solid session at the state Legislature and better alignment between his vision and his public policies before his numbers improve.
"I think there is a voter sentiment of discontent. These are tough times. Government officials aren’t necessarily doing what we want them to do or what some of us think government should be doing for us," said Rebecca Ward, president of Ward Research Inc., which conducted the Hawaii Poll for the Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now. "And I think a lot of our elected officials are taking a hit because of that."
Ward said President Barack Obama and Honolulu Mayor Peter Carlisle, the other chief executives measured in the poll, also saw their job approval ratings erode since last spring. The Hawaii-born Obama, however, still had a job approval rating of 69 percent in the islands, down from 74 percent. The president’s job approval nationally was 48 percent in the latest tracking by Gallup. Carlisle’s rating was 55 percent, down from 64 percent.
Democratic candidates in Hawaii will likely benefit politically with Obama on the ballot for re-election in November, but Abercrombie, if his numbers remain below par, could be a negative.
The Hawaii Poll showed that Abercrombie is viewed more positively on the neighbor islands than on Oahu. Younger and low-income voters also tend to give him higher ratings. Democrats are divided — 47 percent approve of his performance — while just 35 percent of union households like the job the governor is doing, a scar on his labor-friendly image. He also scores poorly with independents, at 28 percent approval.
The poll was taken by telephone among 771 registered voters statewide from Jan. 26 to Feb. 5. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Chuck Freedman, a spokesman for the Democratic Party of Hawaii and a former aide to Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz, believes the Abercrombie administration has been on a steadier course since a successful Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in November.
"My own sense of it is it could be very much a reflection of the fact that good things are happening and the management of government — both the financial aspect of it and just the way issues are being handled publicly — are really in a new gear," Freedman said.
Others find what they describe as a "vision deficit," a disconnect between the governor’s "A New Day in Hawaii" agenda and executing specific public policies. While Abercrombie has sought to advance his goals for alternative energy, early childhood education and technology, he has been constrained from following through on some of the loftier promises of his campaign because of the budget and political concerns.
The governor’s top advisers — Bruce Coppa, his chief of staff, and Blake Oshiro, his deputy chief of staff, who came in after an exodus of senior staff in October — have had a calming influence at the state Capitol. Kalbert Young, the state budget director, has won near-universal praise for his straightforward assessments of the state’s finances.
But many lawmakers — insiders and those who observe from the outside — say they still have a hard time reading the governor.
"I think he’s certainly trying to right the ship. He’s brought on quite a few talented people to try to achieve that. Every good chief executive is only as good as their management team, and he’s got a lot of experienced hands now up there," said state Rep. Aaron Johanson (R, Mapunapuna-Aiea). "There are a lot of difficult challenges that the state is having to deal with. I’m not sure if everyone in the state knows what the articulated vision is for the state. I think that’s probably what people are wondering at the present moment."
The most recent poll was conducted among 771 registered voters by telephone (land lines and cellphones) Jan. 26-Feb. 5 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The 2011 poll was conducted May 4-10 among 614 registered voters on Oahu by telephone (land lines and cellphones) by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Island |
Oahu |
71% |
Maui |
8 |
Lnai |
<1 |
Molokai |
1 |
Hawaii (Big Island) |
16 |
Kauai |
4 |
|
Sample type |
Landline |
66% |
Cell phone |
34 |
These questions are for classification purposes only…
Q12. Which party do you usually find yourself voting with:
Democratic Party |
61% |
Republican Party |
20 |
Neither/Independent |
17 |
Other |
<1 |
Don’t know/refused |
2 |
Q13. How many years have you lived in Hawai‘i?
Less than 2 years |
<1% |
2 – less than 5 years |
1 |
5 – less than 10 years |
4 |
10 or more years |
35 |
Born and raised in Hawai‘i |
59 |
Don’t know/refused |
0 |
Q14. What was your age on your last birthday?
18-24 |
5% |
25-34 |
10 |
35-44 |
11 |
45-54 |
27 |
55-64 |
18 |
65+ |
28 |
Still refused |
<1 |
MEAN: 53.86 |
MEDIAN: 54.00 |
Q15. What is your ethnic identification? (IF MIXED, ASK) Would that include Hawaiian?
Caucasian |
22% |
Chinese |
6 |
Filipino |
14 |
Hawaiian/part-Hawaiian |
18 |
Japanese |
25 |
Mixed |
9 |
Other |
5 |
Refused |
1 |
Q16. Do you or does anyone in your household belong to a union?
Yes |
35% |
No |
65 |
Don’t know/Refused |
1 |
Q17. And was your household income for 2011, before taxes:
Under $35,000 |
21% |
$35,000 – but under $50,000 |
15 |
$50,000 – but under $75,000 |
18 |
$75,000 – but under $100,000 |
15 |
$100,000 and over |
21 |
Refused |
11 |
Q18. Gender: