Hannemann leads by big margin

Two years after suffering a blowout loss in the Demo­cratic gubernatorial primary, former Hono­lulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann is in prime position to win a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a new poll.

If the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District were held today, Hannemann would walk away with 65 percent of the vote, compared with just 20 percent for his best-known challenger, City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard, according to the Hawaii Poll conducted for the Hono­lulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now. Fifteen percent of respondents said they did not know or refused to answer.

"It’s very gratifying and humbling that people recognize what we’ve done in the past and certainly want to see us get back into the arena," Hannemann said Tuesday. "I’ve always been very positive and been very upbeat, despite two years ago.

"I always look forward. I never look backward."

The telephone poll of 336 Demo­cratic primary voters in the 2nd Congressional District was conducted Jan. 26 through Feb. 5 by Ward Research Inc. It has a margin of error of 5.3 percentage points.

Hannemann and Gabbard are among five declared Demo­cratic candidates running for the seat representing rural Oahu and the neighbor islands.

The other candidates are former Office of Hawaiian Affairs Chief Advocate Esther Kia­aina, Hilo attorney Bob Marx and Hono­lulu attorney Rafael del Castillo. There is no declared Republican candidate.

All are hoping to succeed Mazie Hirono, who is seeking the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. Dan Akaka.

Gabbard is in the second year of her first term on the Council. A captain in the Army National Guard, she previously served in the state House before being called to duty in the war in Af­ghani­stan.

"I am out there on the ground every single day talking to voters and talking to residents in each community on every island," Gabbard said. "What I’m hearing from them is they’re very excited about the fresh and effective leadership that I offer."

Observers say Gabbard’s biggest hurdle is name recognition. Hannemann has it after running a statewide campaign just two years ago.

"At the end of the day, people know who Mufi Hannemann is. They don’t know who Tulsi is," said John Hart, chairman of the communications department at Hawaii Pacific University. "If she can get known and make a good impression, it could be a very different story.

"Until she gets known, it appears that we’ve got winner by name recognition."

Hannemann appears to have bounced back from losing the Demo­cratic primary for governor to Neil Abercrombie by 22 points in 2010. His name recognition and favorability remain high.

Among 432 likely voters in the district, 59 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Hannemann, who was twice elected mayor. Thirty-three percent had an unfavorable opinion, 7 percent said they did not know enough about him while only 1 percent had never heard of him.

Gabbard’s favorable rating was 18 percent, compared with 19 percent unfavorable. Twenty-three percent said they did not know enough about her, while 40 percent said they had never heard of her. The margin of error for the favorability was 4.7 percentage points.

To get her name out, Gabbard has some ground to make up on fundraising, having started the year with about $317,000 in cash on hand, compared with $509,000 for Hannemann.

"This is very much a grass-roots campaign that is very focused on the voters and residents within the communities on each island in the 2nd Congressional District," Gabbard said. "I’m confident that as people get to know me, as they get to know my positions on issues, then they will make the choice for fresh leadership over the tired, failed leadership of Hannemann."

Despite the sizable lead, Hannemann said he has no plan to let up. "I think at the end of the day that these numbers are great, but we intend to keep building the momentum, expanding the base," Hannemann said.