I wanted to go out on several limbs today — those being the arms of its pitchers — and proclaim that Hawaii will come out of Arizona this week with a WAC tournament championship and NCAA regionals bid.
I was that pumped about the Rainbows after seeing them dismantle Nevada the other night, with Jon Flinn and Riley Welch adding to UH’s mound riches.
Just can’t bring myself to pick UH. Yet. Or any team.
You only have to widen the lens a little and then focus it back in on some of the details to realize there’s no way to choose a favorite in the conference tourney that starts today.
But there’s also no reason to count out fourth-seeded UH … even though the Rainbows didn’t get one of the two byes. Hawaii has enough pitching depth to overcome having to play a game before Sacramento State and New Mexico State — as long as it wins its first game.
Look at the Hawaii staff, and the only reason to think the Rainbows wouldn’t have as good a chance as anyone is that they’re not playing at Les Murakami Stadium.
Then consider where they ARE playing, and faith is restored. The past two years, UH is 6-3 at Hohokam Stadium in Mesa, Ariz., which was also the site of the 2010 and 2011 tournaments. That includes taking the tournament championship two years ago.
This is a park with a big outfield (411 feet in dead center and 385 in the alleys), and that plays to UH’s advantage with speedy Breland Almadova in center. Elevation is 1,243 feet, which is a lot lower than the upper-cut sluggers from New Mexico State are used to at home in Las Cruces.
But look at this: The Rainbows play Fresno State in today’s first game. UH took two out of three from the Bulldogs during the regular season this year. But in the past two WAC tournaments, Fresno State has beaten Hawaii three times. And, as usual, FSU is getting hot at the right time with six wins in its past eight games.
Obviously, winning today is almost a must, even if UH had a staff full of future Hall of Fame pitchers. The Rainbows have eight hurlers with an ERA under 4.00, but usual No. 1 starter Matt Sisto missed a turn last week with a groin injury, and closer Brent Harrison has a sore arm.
If the Rainbows lose today, they’d have to win six straight in four days. And they’d have to do it with the weakest UH bench I can remember. The nonstarters batted .146 in 192 at-bats, the highest average being .205. They don’t even have a left-handed pinch-hitting option.
So the starting position players aren’t allowed to get hurt this week, and they’d better take precautions against the triple-digit temperatures, especially since they’d have to play twice a day later in the week.
The bottom third of the Rainbows lineup showed some rare signs of life last week. If they can keep those contributions coming, it will take some pressure off the heart of the batting order. And this UH team seems to do better when it’s playing loose, like it did on Saturday.
The freshmen at the top of the lineup — Stephen Ventimilia and Kaeo Aliviado — don’t play like rookies and you can expect they’ll get on base plenty for Pi’ikea Kitamura and Collin Bennett.
Bennett is like Fresno State; he heats up toward the end of the season. Bennett set a WAC tournament record with 13 hits in 2010. He batted .417 in WAC regular-season play last year and all three of his homers this year came in conference competition.
Right now, there’s not much to separate the teams in the WAC baseball tournament. But there is one with plenty of pitching depth, and that is Hawaii.
If the Rainbows get past Fresno State today, especially if Jarrett Arakawa goes at least seven innings, fourth-seeded UH becomes the favorite to win the tournament.