Former congressman Ed Case describes U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono as part of the far-left fringe of the Democratic Party, an appeal to moderates, independents and Republicans to back him as the mainstream choice in the primary election for U.S. Senate.
The moderate Case used a similar, if slightly softer, theme in his unsuccessful primary against the liberal U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka in 2006. But he hopes voter turnout will be higher this year and that the demographic shifts that have been taking place across the islands will finally turn in his favor.
Political analysts called Case’s approach a gamble six years ago, because it could alienate the establishment, labor and progressive Democrats who are among the most likely primary voters. This year, analysts say, Case has the additional obstacle of former Gov. Linda Lingle, the leading Republican contender for the U.S. Senate, who will use the primary to help identify the moderate and independent voters she will need to compete in the November general election.
"I’m not pursuing any deliberate strategy; I’m just saying what I think," Case said. "I’m talking to voters across the political spectrum. I believe that we certainly can represent moderates and independents very well, as well as Republicans. But I also believe that we better represent the mainstream Democrat in Hawaii and in our country.
"And so when I talk about Mazie being at the far left 2 percent of the U.S. Congress, I’m also saying that she represents a distinct and very small slice of the voters of Hawaii, including the voters of the Democratic Party."
Hirono has said she is a proud member of the Progressive Caucus but also works collaboratively with colleagues from both parties on issues important to Hawaii. During debates with Case last week, the congresswoman was able to add flesh to the idea that Case’s views on economic policy were closer to the national Republican agenda.
"This is not about left or right, as far as I’m concerned. It’s about right or wrong," she said in a PBS Hawaii forum on Thursday.
Case, who was in the moderate-to-conservative Blue Dog caucus when he served in Congress, for years has had to answer doubts from the left about whether he is truly a Democrat. His campaign advisers sent out letters before the party’s state convention in May assuring Democrats that Case, like Hirono, is a proud Democrat who shares the party’s core values.
"Here’s our bottom line," his advisers wrote. "Ed’s actual positions and record leave no doubt that he is a true Democrat and will fight for our values in the Senate over the next generation."
Neal Milner, a retired University of Hawaii at Manoa political science professor, said Case faced the same challenges in previous campaigns. "Case has always had a problem with Democrats because they don’t trust him, because the bigwigs have been against him, and because people in the left of the party have always thought he was too conservative," he said.
But Milner said Case’s centrist appeal might work if moderates, independents and Republicans decide that the Hirono-Case duel is the most important in the primary and tune out Lingle.
Case would likely need higher-than-average voter turnout for his candidacy and a subpar get-out-the-vote effort from Lingle.
Voter turnout has not topped 43 percent in the past several primary elections despite competitive campaigns that involved heavy political advertising and wide media coverage.
The state moved up the primary to Aug. 11 this year to comply with a federal law on military and overseas voting. Campaign strategists say they do not know how a primary in the heart of summer vacation season will affect turnout, but suspect that many voters are not even aware yet that the primary will not be in late September.
Case said turnout on Oahu and in Hawaii County may be higher because of competitive mayoral elections.
Former Gov. Ben Cayetano — who is running for mayor as an opponent of the Honolulu rail project against former Managing Director Kirk Caldwell and Mayor Peter Carlisle — may help drive turnout in the Hawaii Kai, Kahala, Kailua and Maunawili neighborhoods where rail is unpopular and where Case did well against Akaka in 2006. Case has performed better on Oahu than on the neighbor islands, but his campaign has put substantial focus on Hawaii County , where former Mayor Harry Kim and Hawaii County Councilman Dominic Yagong are challenging Mayor Billy Kenoi.
Case has also cited research by Gallup that shows more Hawaii voters identify themselves as moderate or conservative than liberal. But Case will have to keep these voters from Lingle.
In 2006, when Case lost to Akaka, Lingle was up for re-election as governor but made only a token primary effort, so just 12 percent of voters cast Republican ballots. In 2002, when Case narrowly lost to Hirono in the primary for governor, Lingle made an aggressive primary effort for her campaign for governor, and 29 percent of voters cast GOP ballots.
Lingle released her first television advertisement last week and debuted a 24-hour digital cable channel devoted to her Senate campaign. Tonight, a Lingle video — "Looking Back. Looking Forward" — will appear simultaneously on KHON, KITV and Hawaii News Now. Her advisers say Lingle will likely keep an ad presence and actively court voters through the primary against John Carroll, a former state lawmaker and attorney.
Andy Winer, an adviser to Hirono who was Akaka’s campaign manager six years ago, rejects Case’s depiction of Hirono as far-left. He said her views are squarely in the mainstream of the Democratic base.
Public opinion polls have shown that Hirono is much stronger than Case among voters who identify themselves as Democrats or are in union households — the kind of voters who have a history of participating in primaries.
Winer said he doubts the Case campaign, which trails badly in raising funds, has either the money or the tactical ability to drive voter turnout among independents and Republicans in the primary when Lingle is interested in the same voters.
"I think it comes a little bit out of ‘Fantasy Island,’ to be honest with you," he said.
He said the Case campaign would need extensive communications and multiple voter contacts to get independents and Republicans to show up at a primary on an unfamiliar early date, choose a Democratic ballot, and vote for Case.
"You just don’t do that by having coffee hours and waving signs," he said. "Those are important parts of a campaign for visibility, but that’s not what will convince voters to actually show up and do all of those things that they need to do."
