New poll on mayor’s race surprises with ethnic data

This continues to be the strangest of political primary seasons, and now we have numbers to confirm it.

Former Gov. Ben Cayetano is winning the race for mayor. And he is doing it with a coalition that even he could not have imagined a year ago.

There is still time for an upset, and winning outright in the primary election in two weeks is still a reach, but a new Hawaii Poll shows Cayetano the top candidate with 44 percent, Mayor Peter Carlisle at 27 percent and former acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell at 25 percent.

The numbers show Cayetano getting support from areas you would expect and others that need a lot of explaining.

Politics in a multicultural stew pot such as Hawaii is always somewhat ethnic. Politicians use their ethnicity to their advantage and emphasize their own care, support and relationships with members of other ethnic groups.

The politician able to happily devour a plate of dinuguan or chicken feet with harm har sauce is only going to win more votes.

As one politician recently advised an aspiring local politician in a Facebook post: Voters will like it that he was marrying a hapa-Japanese local girl.

So it was not really surprising that a political story from the Star-Bulletin of Aug. 17, 1998, announced: "The governor says polls show he is ‘getting clobbered’ in Caucasian areas."

If Cayetano, who is of Filipino-American ancestry, is startled by new demographics in the 2012 poll, it is understandable.

First, 76 percent of the Filipino-American voters surveyed say they think favorably of Cayetano. The 57 percent of Hawaiian voters also report thinking favorably about the former governor. The big shift is that 49 percent of the Caucasian voters are also pleased with Cayetano.

To be honest, the white favorability score is nearly split, with 49 in favor and 46 unfavorable. Still, it is a remarkable turnaround since the days when Cayetano was never getting much love from Caucasian voters.

If viewed in economic terms, Cayetano gets his biggest boost from the little guys, that part of the 99 percent with a household income of $50,000 or less. A total of 61 percent of that group has a favorable view of Cayetano.

This is all the more remarkable because Pacific Resource Partnership has spent an estimated $500,000 or more in the last months drenching the TV and radio spectrum with a vicious and misleading personal attack on Cayetano for his opposition to the city rail project.

If the PRP strategy was to discredit Cayetano, it has not registered with voters. Cayetano captures the same 44 percent of the vote as reported in February, so the attack ads and negative radio spots are having precisely zero effect in the campaign.

Obviously, the public’s dislike for the rail project is driving the Cayetano vote. When a politician is getting both ethnic support and is squared away with the voters on the big issue of the day, he becomes a potent force.

The demographic breakdown on the voter survey shows 41 percent of Caucasians, 45 percent of Hawaiians, 36 percent of Japanese-Americans and 62 percent of Filipino-Americans will vote for Cayetano.

Again, 50 percent of little guys earning less than $50,000, and independents, say Cayetano is their choice. He gets almost twice as many union votes as either Caldwell or Carlisle.

Outside of Filipino-Americans, what group is most likely to vote for Cayetano?

The Republicans. A full 53 percent of the GOP voters surveyed say they are voting for Cayetano — and that gives nonpartisan a whole new meaning.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.