Caldwell pulls into contention

The campaign for Honolulu mayor appears to be a race for second place, with former Gov. Ben Cayetano a clear favorite heading into the Aug. 11 primary, according to a new Hawaii Poll.

But the poll suggests Cayetano’s support is not enough to give him an outright victory in the primary, placing incumbent Mayor Peter Carlisle and former city Managing Director Kirk Caldwell in a tight battle for second place and the chance to extend the campaign to November to face Cayetano in the general election.

If the vote for Honolulu mayor were held today, 44 percent of respondents said they would pick Cayetano, the only one opposed to the city’s $5.26 billion rail transit project. Carlisle was next at 27 percent, followed by Caldwell at 25 percent — a difference within the poll’s margin of error, making it a statistical dead heat. Only 4 percent did not know or refused to answer.

One candidate would need 50 percent plus one vote in the primary for an outright victory, otherwise the top two finishers advance to the November general election.

"What it tells me is that despite the fact that (Pacific Resource Partnership) and those guys have been running a negative campaign against me that’s already cost more than half a million dollars, we’re maintaining our position and that’s good for us," Cayetano said.

The telephone poll of 509 very likely voters in the upcoming primary was conducted July 12-21 by Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu for the Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now. It has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.

The latest numbers show Cayetano’s support is steady from where it was six months ago, while Caldwell has siphoned off some voters from Carlisle as the two fight to differentiate themselves and show who has the better plan for moving the rail project forward. A February poll showed Cayetano also with 44 percent, followed by Carlisle at 35 percent and Caldwell at 16 percent.

"I’m the only guy moving and it’s all positive in its direction," Caldwell said. "The good news, in your poll, is it shows Ben is stagnant. Despite raising almost $900,000, despite being on radio and TV a lot, his numbers don’t seem to have moved. So I take that as a positive indication."

Cayetano raised $893,000 in the first six months of the year, followed by Caldwell at $511,000 and Carlisle at $198,000.

Carlisle called the poll results "not particularly unexpected," noting that he continues to focus on city business in the midst of the campaign.

"The message that needs to get out over and over again is accomplishments as opposed to promises," Carlisle said. "And that’s what we’re going to be focusing on in the last two weeks — let people know what’s actually been done in the city."

The latest Hawaii Poll also tested the candidates’ favorability among voters.

When asked their opinion of each, Cayetano was ranked as favorable by 56 percent, Carlisle 51 percent and Caldwell 48 percent.

Thirty-eight percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of Cayetano, compared with 39 percent for Carlisle and 37 percent for Caldwell. Virtually all of the respondents said they had at least heard of the candidates.

Cayetano drew support across all ethnic demographics, particularly among Filipino voters (62 percent) and Hawaiians (45 percent), while also capturing the highest support among older age groups. Strong support also came from those who said they were from union families — 43 percent.

Caldwell received the same amount of support from union members as Carlisle, 27 percent, despite having picked up endorsements from virtually all of the major public- and private-sector unions, including the Hawaii Government Employees Association and the United Public Workers.

Cayetano also got high marks from lower wage-earners and, perhaps surprisingly for the Democratic former two-term governor, Republicans.

Although the race is nonpartisan, Cayetano has said he believes most of the Republican support is due to his stance on rail, and his contention that the project will come in over budget and bankrupt the city at a time when more money should be directed to basic infrastructure such as roads and sewers.

Nika Long, 54, of Kailua, is among those who say the next mayor should focus more on basic needs and not the rail.

"I’m not in support of rail at all," Long said. "I just don’t see where it’s going to help at all. I think it’s a waste of money."

Long said she is leaning toward Cayetano, not only because of his stance on rail, but because of "all the negative campaigning against him."

The most widespread ads against Cayetano have been taken out by Pacific Resource Partnership, an advocacy group for contractors and unionized carpenters and construction workers that is behind the political action committee "Read Ben’s Record." The group’s ads accuse Cayetano of accepting illegal campaign contributions in his last gubernatorial run and rewarding donors with lucrative government contracts.

The state Campaign Spending Commission has said Cayetano did nothing illegal, and former commission Executive Director Bob Watada, who led the crackdown on the "pay-to-play" culture of the 1990s, has called the ad campaign "bogus."

"For me, it tends to make me think the opposite," Long said. "If the only thing you can do is try to illustrate how bad he is, well, tell me what you have good — what are you going to do that’s positive."

The PRP ads are not coordinated with any candidate.

Although Kaneohe resident Justin Tanoue does not live in a community that would benefit from the rail, he is for the project and supports Carlisle.

"I agree with him on many of his positions," said Tanoue, 29. "He supported (rail) when it was popular and now it seems to be more unpopular, but he’s still standing behind his position. To me that shows he votes for what he believes in. Right or wrong, he sticks with his positions."

Waipio Gentry resident Russell Yamauchi said he likes Caldwell’s integrity and his local background of being born in Waipahu and raised in Hilo.

"I believe that he has integrity and he has the best interests of our city in mind, not only because of the rail issue but I think regarding a lot of the issues — especially our city’s infrastructure," said Yamauchi, 61. "I just kind of like the feel of the guy. He’s a local guy, born and raised. I think he has more of a feel for the people here."

The only demographic group not won by Cayetano was voters under the age of 35. Those voters supported Carlisle with 41 percent, followed by Cayetano, 32 percent, and Caldwell, 24 per­cent.

"I’m not going to read too much into that, but obviously my view of the world is that this is something for generations to come," Carlisle said. "And so the fact that younger people recognize that and are attracted to that is something I’m really happy about, because they get it."