It’s easy to slip and call it the WAC. The Mountain West Conference, of which Hawaii is now a member for football, sure does have a Western Athletic Conference look to it. In fact, all 10 current members were previously in the WAC. That includes UH, Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada — the usual preseason contenders for the past decade, with the Broncos nearly always ending up on top and establishing themselves nationally.
The other six members were among the Breakaway Eight that left the WAC to form the Mountain West in 1998. But now BYU and Utah are gone to independent status and the Pac-12.
The 2011 WAC champion from its first Boise-less season, Louisiana Tech, isn’t part of the move to the Mountain West. But San Jose State and Utah State are, heading for the hills in 2013, after perhaps the last season for WAC football unless replacements are found quickly.
So who will win the Mountain West this year? Well, with TCU gone to the Big 12 and out of the picture, Boise State is a clear favorite.
It may be a bit of a down year for the Broncos as they transition from four years of excellence from quarterback Kellen Moore and also lose several other top offensive playmakers and a good chunk of the defense. Also, conference opponents will have even more motivation than usual against them since this is the last shot at Boise State before it moves on to the Big East.
But the Broncos have always been able to reload effectively. And is there anyone left in the Mountain West who can take them down, even with Boise minus its stars of the past couple of seasons?
Fresno State is talented. Nevada has the muscle memory of beating Boise State two years ago and has the Broncos at home again this year.
But the Bulldogs are also in transition, with a new coach and drastic change in offensive philosophy. And the Wolf Pack aren’t nearly the team they were when they won the WAC in 2010.
Hawaii isn’t close to being ready to challenge for the conference championship yet, as first-year head coach Norm Chow begins a rebuilding project complicated by switching from the run-and-shoot to an offense with more traditional concepts. I’d say conventional rather than traditional concepts, but with more teams routinely spreading the line of scrimmage all the time (including Fresno State this season), four-wide attacks aren’t the novelty act they used to be.
The good news for UH is that there are teams it should be able to handle easily in UNLV and New Mexico. But we thought that about the Rebels last year, and the Warriors were bushwhacked at Sam Boyd Stadium by a team that won just one more game the rest of the way, and UH finished 6-7 — its second losing season in three years.
The offseason started optimistically with the hiring of Chow, but has been wet-blanketed with three DUI arrests leading to suspensions.
The most critical potential loss is punter Alex Dunnachie, who has a court date this week after a suspicion of DUI arrest early this month. Dunnachie might have been the team’s most valuable player this season. He has an NFL-caliber leg and averaged 39.2, 40.3 and 39.7 yards per punt in his first three seasons.
In the run-and-shoot days, a good punter was not always a necessity. But Chow has said he plans to build the 2012 Warriors around a strong defense, partly due to the offense being a work in progress. Teams built on defense rely on winning field-position battles, and field-position battles require solid punting.
I’d probably pick the Warriors to win enough games to finish in the upper half of the Mountain West and make it to the Hawaii Bowl if the offense were more settled.
But, as usual in recent years, there are big questions on the offensive line.
Another, perhaps bigger, concern is that there is no starting quarterback yet and fall camp starts in three days. David Graves started the spring as the top candidate, but did not adapt well enough to the new offense to grab the job.
Reserving the right to change my opinion after the early nonconference games, here’s what I predict the Mountain West standings will look like at the end of the season: 1. Boise State. 2. Fresno State. 3. Nevada. 4. San Diego State. 5. Wyoming. 6. Air Force. 7. Hawaii. 8. Colorado State. 9. UNLV. 10. New Mexico.
I’ll have a record prediction and game-by-game breakdown for Hawaii closer to the start of the season.
Reach Dave Reardon at dreardon@staradvertiser.com or 529-4783.
