The new Hawaii Poll, sponsored by this newspaper and Hawaii News Now, takes a bit of time to plow through, but buried in all the crosstabs are the reasons why the city’s rail project is still so controversial.

Honolulu voters do more than just dislike the idea.

They think it is the wrong idea and want buses instead.

First, voters are saying it won’t reduce traffic. About 44 percent say yes, it will cut it, but 54 percent say no, it will not help traffic congestion.

According to the survey taken by Ward Research, the group with the most doubts are men, with 57 percent doubting its effectiveness. Fifty percent of women also don’t think it will do much, but not with the same intensity.

Government never earns a good reputation for handling your money well, so it is not a surprise that most voters in Honolulu think the $5.26 billion rail transit project is going to cost a lot more than estimated.

Our poll shows that 84 percent think the city’s budget numbers are wrong. That should give city leaders pause, because it means that any time the mayor, a City Council member or traffic bureaucrat walks into a public gathering, more than 80 percent are already in disbelief of the city’s figures.

If we think it will not reduce traffic congestion, if we think it will cost more than we are being told, what about the economic benefit of the jobs created?

Asked if voters thinks the jobs created will "boost the economy so much that the cost of the project will be worth it," 54 percent said they disagreed with that premise.

Among all the groups that strongly agreed with the idea were Filipino-Americans, with 27 percent in strong agreement. This is a major disconnect, because 55 percent of Filipino-American voters say rail should not proceed and 62 percent say they will vote for former Gov. Ben Cayetano, who is campaigning on a platform of stopping rail.

Those three poll questions make up the backbone of the city’s argument for rail: It is going to create jobs, it is coming in on budget and it will reduce traffic. The poll shows a majority of voters don’t believe any of that.

The poll also asked about the bus alternative, saying, "Something needs to be done about traffic, but an enhanced bus system is a better choice than rail."

Jackpot!

A total of 59 percent of the voters either agree or strongly agree with that reasoning.

Who likes the bus idea the most? Women, Filipino-Americans, those making under $50,000 and those 55 and older.

The poll did not mention it, but the enhanced bus system is the plan proposed by Cayetano.

The argument can be made that the city’s rail plan doesn’t suffer from either faulty public relations or a lack of transparency, although those are problems; the real reason rail is not winning strong support is because it is not what voters in Honolulu want.

The more the city refuses to change the plan, the more public frustration will grow and the more it will result in the election of a city leader who will relieve the tension by moving in a new direction.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.