Soon after returning from Washington, D.C., on Friday, U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono stopped by the corner of Moanalua Road and Hoolaulea Street in Pearl City for sign waving before speaking to an evening rally at Highlands Intermediate School.
"The seniors are counting on us. The middle class is counting on us. Teachers are counting on us," the Democratic contender for U.S. Senate told dozens of supporters who had gathered over chili and rice.
A few miles down Moanalua Road in Aiea, former congressman Ed Case, Hirono’s opponent in Saturday’s primary, greeted rush-hour commuters with smiles and shakas.
"Voters want to see the candidate. Voters want to see you working hard," Case said. "They judge you by what they see of you. And if they see you working hard, they’re going to say, ‘Well, a guy that works hard on the campaign is going to work hard for me in the Senate.’"
Personal appearances are the most visible signs of get-out-the-vote efforts. While retail politics still has an important role in elections, the trench work to influence turnout has taken place through voter identification over the past several months.
Political analysts and campaign strategists predict voter turnout on Saturday will be average or below average for a primary, where turnout has not exceeded 43 percent over several election cycles. Analysts also suspect that the trend toward voting by absentee ballot through the mail or at early walk-in locations will continue, so more than 40 percent could cast ballots before Saturday.
The early primary — moved from September this year to comply with a federal law protecting military and overseas voters — has thrown a degree of uncertainty into whether traditional primary voting patterns still apply.
Primary voters tend to be older, more reliable, and more likely to identify with political parties.
Public-opinion polls have shown that Hirono is particularly strong among traditional Democrats and union workers — who are among the most likely Democratic primary voters — while Case scores better among independents and Republicans. Former Gov. Linda Lingle, the leading Republican candidate, is aggressively urging her supporters to participate in the primary even though she is expected to easily defeat former state lawmaker John Carroll, creating another obstacle for Case.
Polls have also consistently shown Hirono with a larger lead over Case on the neighbor islands than on Oahu.
Andy Winer, a Democratic strategist for Hirono who was the campaign manager for U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka in his primary against Case in 2006, said the Hirono campaign is using a formula similar to the one that worked for Akaka.
The Hirono campaign has targeted traditional Democrats through party registration and vote history, along with a subgroup of Japanese-Americans who primarily live on the neighbor islands.
Through polling and personal interviews, the campaign has confirmed that the demographic base they have identified supports the congresswoman over Case by about a 2-to-1 margin.
The Democrats and AJAs who have voted in the past three primary elections will likely get a "light touch," Winer said, while the more infrequent voters will get multiple contacts over the telephone and in person at their homes by Saturday.
The outreach is directed at improving turnout among these infrequent voters in 14 to 16 state House districts on Oahu, Hawaii island and Maui that are considered bedrock Democratic territory.
Winer said the campaign has chosen to focus more on voter contact as opposed to visibility, such as sign-waving events, coffee hours or rallies.
"We’re talking to voters two and three and four times and building that personal relationship," he said. "And I would maintain that’s a much more effective way to go."
Lloyd Nekoba, Case’s campaign manager and a veteran Democratic strategist, said the Case campaign has targeted the most frequent voters in the past four primaries. While the campaign has worked through the Democrats’ party registration list, the moderate former congressman has also reached out to independents and Republicans.
Over the past few weeks, Case has been increasingly blunt about asking independents and Republicans to pull Democratic ballots. In a speech in late July to Smart Business Hawaii, a conservative group, Case described the primary as a "death match" against the Democratic political machine and said a victory, regardless of the outcome against Lingle in the November general election, would "drive a stake into the heart of that machine."
Case, as he has throughout his political career, has also relied on "talk story" and "pau hana" events, as well as sign waving and personally going door to door to meet with voters.
Nekoba said voter turnout could be higher on Oahu and on Hawaii Island because of the mayoral elections. The Case campaign maintains, in particular, that Case may benefit if former Gov. Ben Cayetano, who is running for Honolulu mayor as an anti-rail candidate, drives turnout in East Honolulu and Windward neighborhoods where Case has had a history of success.
"People just don’t vote in the primary," Nekoba said of recent history. "But I think they’re going to vote because they’re going to go for Ben."
Winer and others, however, think the Case campaign is making a complicated assumption, since Case, who is pro-rail, will likely have to compete with Lingle, who opposes the rail project, for the same independent and Republican voters in those neighborhoods.
Lingle has opted to invest heavily in advertising before the primary to re-establish a connection with voters and to help lay the groundwork for her bipartisan campaign theme in November. While the former governor is better known than Hirono and Case, she has not been on the ballot since 2006 and has not had a competitive race since she defeated Hirono for governor in 2002.
The Lingle campaign will also use the primary to test the strength of the GOP’s party registration list, which grew after the Republican presidential caucuses in March.
"This gives us an opportunity to connect with the base of Lingle supporters and to remind them that it’s important to have Gov. Lingle have a good showing, and plus we can collate some data from the caucus," said retired Maj. Gen. Robert G.F. Lee, Lingle’s campaign manager.
While effective voter identification is probably the most critical aspect of get-out-the-vote efforts, retail politics like sign waving and rallies provide the personal connections that can keep candidates and volunteers engaged.
Case said people are often shocked to see him standing along the side of the road with a campaign sign. The experience can offer the kind of small validations — the honked horn, the shout of encouragement — that keep a candidate going.
"I hope you beat her!" one woman yelled as she drove past Case on Friday evening.
At the rally at Highlands Intermediate, Hirono and her husband, Leighton Oshima, sat in the front row of the cafeteria as allies such as state Sen. David Ige and former Hawaii State Teachers Association President June Motokawa praised her as a fighter for education and the working class.
"She’s there for us all the time," Motokawa said.
