Main thing that matters is to get supporters to vote

At the end it just comes down to voting. You may be the ideal candidate, you can own the issues and your opponent may be a dolt, but none of it counts unless you get your people to vote.

Figuring out who will win a political race invites endless speculation, and now it ends up with voter turnout.

During the last week of a campaign, the effort consumes Hawaii campaigns.

Some, like local attorney Andy Winer, who is advising U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono’s Democratic primary campaign for the U.S. Senate, eight weeks ago launched a plan to identify the voters she needs to win.

Volunteers call registered voters, looking for those who have voted frequently but not in all elections. When those voters are identified, Hirono’s campaign steps up the effort to call, cajole and convince them to vote for Hirono.

Winer says the Democratic voter likely to support Hirono "tends to be a union, Asian and neighbor islander."

What candidates want is not exactly a high turnout, but a high turnout of just their supporters.

"Knowing who to get out; get out the vote is only as good as your targeting. Otherwise you are just guessing," Winer said.

By relying on the usual Hawaii Democratic voter who favors a liberal or progressive candidate, Hirono will do well without having to capture voters in a high-turnout election, says Neal Milner, the University of Hawaii emeritus political scientist.

"If she can mobilize the Democratic stalwarts, that usual democratic coalition that would vote for a candidate like her, she would be fine without a high turnout," Milner said.

"In the end, it may be about who turns out, not how high is the total turnout," says Amy Agbayani, UH director of Student Equity, Excellence and Diversity, said.

Agbayani, who is helping both Hirono and former Gov. Ben Cayetano’s campaign for Honolulu mayor, says turnout will help Cayetano because she thinks the former two-term governor and lieutenant governor wins several different types of supporters.

Today, Cayetano is attracting the traditional Democratic party voters, his usual support from Filipino-Americans, and now is adding to it the support of Republicans and conservatives living in areas that will not be served by the city’s planned rail system.

Cayetano has vowed to stop the $5.26 billion rail project if elected mayor.

Filipino-American voters are overwhelmingly supportive of Cayetano’s election, says Agbayani, who is also a leader in the Filipino community. But she said Filipino voters historically tend to skip primaries and vote instead in the general election.

"This is an area where they just don’t come out that much," Agbayani said.

Republicans are also looking at the mayor’s race, even though it is a nonpartisan contest with candidates running without an official party label.

"The mayor’s race undoubtedly is a big factor in voter turnout for the primary. Also, the rail is an issue that will draw quite a few voters," predicted David S. Chang, Hawaii GOP chairman.

The major candidate most likely to need a large voter turnout is City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard, who is seeking to replace Hirono in the 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary.

"To her it is like the last sprint in a marathon; turnout will really be beneficial," Milner says.

Agbayani agrees, noting that Gabbard will need support from more than just traditional Democrats to win.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.